The publication of the 1st estimate of the growth of the French economy in the 4th quarter comes after several other very unfavourable indicators have been made public: a sharp rise in unemployment over the same period, the persistence of a trade deficit over the last twelve months close to 90 billion euros, the continued fall in housing starts (30% in two years) all in a context of accumulation of public deficits and record debt. The only good news concerns inflation: it rose to 1.4% in January over one year and makes France one of the best pupils in ...

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The publication of the first estimate of Chinese growth in 2024 reassured the authorities but did not convince Western observers. The figure is first and foremost symbolic since it corresponds to the objective set by the country's authorities. And there was some doubt about whether it would be 4.9 or 5%. Given the margins of error inherent in any statistic, the difference is not significant. But to reach this figure, a clear acceleration in growth was needed in the 4th quarter.

It intervened: in the 3rd quarter, GDP had grown by only 4.6% over one year. Growth ...

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At a time when the new French government is looking for measures to redress the public accounts, the publication of job creation figures in the United States (256,000) well above what was expected (190,000) has caused a rise in long-term interest rates that has had an impact on Europe. With growth and inflation both above 2% and near full employment, since the unemployment rate is close to 4%, the Federal Reserve has little reason to lower its key rates in 2025. Four reductions of 0.25% were previously expected. Only one drop is now likely but in reality ...

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