The International Energy Agency has just published its report on the consumption and production of electricity in the world. Growth was 4.2% and an average growth of 4% is forecast for the years 2025 to 2027. In three years, world production will increase by 3500 TWh. To assess the extent of this increase, it is sufficient to recall that France's annual production in recent years has averaged about 500 TWh per year. This growth is higher than the growth of the world economy, despite the efforts made in many countries to moderate their energy consumption. The world has therefore entered a phase of accelerating its electrification

However, the evolution by country reveals strong disparities. In 2024, the increase in electricity consumption in China reached 7% and a slowdown to 6% is expected for the 2025-2027 period. For the other emerging countries, the increase for the next three years is also expected to be 6% per year, an acceleration compared to the 2015-2024 period when annual growth was 5%. These figures show the sharp gap with the United States and even more so with Europe, where the combined effects of lower economic growth and the decline in high-consumption industries (electro-intensive sectors) have sometimes led to production cuts. In Europe, in ten years, it has fallen by 6% and it is estimated that we will not return to the level of 2019 until 2027.

The main drivers of electrification are located in China and other emerging countries in Southeast Asia. Between 2014 and 2023, according to figures from the Energy Institute, Chinese and Indian electricity production increased by 72% and 66% respectively. The share of electricity in total energy consumption is now 28% in China, compared to only 22% in the United States and 21% in Europe. This difference is explained by the evolution of the structure of demand. Beijing's considerable efforts to control the global market for solar panels, which require a lot of energy to produce, have contributed to the increase in electricity needs, such as the success of electric vehicles and the construction of data centers.

Climate change could also contribute to this trend. Heating needs in the developed countries of the northern hemisphere are expected to decrease, but this would mainly concern fossil fuels, which are mainly used. Conversely, the demand for air conditioning equipment around the world is expected to increase, which is essentially powered by electricity. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, technological advances and the consequences of global warming are therefore contributing, as well as the economic catch-up of emerging countries, to a growth in the demand for and production of electricity in the world, even if this is uneven across continents.

Electrification, especially in cities, is a key factor in improving air quality, since the fine particles emitted by combustion engines, factories and certain heating installations will be significantly reduced. But for this indisputable progress to extend to greenhouse gas emissions, the methods of electricity production themselves must not emit them. There is no point in favouring electric vehicles if the electricity used to manufacture them and power their engines is produced from coal.

However, renewables have not yet been able to keep up with the evolution of electricity demand where it was most important. As for nuclear power, although it is experiencing a clear rebound almost everywhere in the world, as evidenced by Japan's decision to reopen certain power plants shut down after the Fukushima disaster, the deadlines for the construction of power plants will not make it possible to meet all the needs in good time. The development of renewable energy capacity will contribute to this, but as they are intermittent and often located far from high-consumption areas, considerable investment is to be expected in the transmission and distribution networks. But, in any case, traditional production units will have to be ready to operate when renewables are shut down.

This is why it is illusory to believe that we are heading towards an imminent extinction of the use of fossil fuels. These are essential for electricity production for a long time to come. Observation of the electricity mix of those which are both the main producing countries and those with the highest growth supports this analysis. In 2023, according to statistics from the Energy Institute, 64% of China's electricity production was provided by fossil fuels, mainly coal. The situation is even clearer in India, where 75% of the electricity mix is based on coal.

Developed countries have a very varied electricity mix. The United States uses coal and natural gas to the tune of 59% in total, but a shift has taken place over the past ten years with the fall in the share of coal, which has fallen to 16%, and a rapid rise in natural gas, thanks to the exploitation of new shale gas deposits. Nuclear and renewables reach 40%. American greenhouse gas emissions have therefore fallen sharply thanks to this changeover, but we seem to have reached a plateau and the future increase in electricity demand, particularly with the construction of data centers, could lead to a rebound in the use of fossil fuels. The US president's encouragement of the search for new deposits probably takes this situation into account.

The decline in electricity consumption in Europe reflects the persistent stagnation of the economy and the general movement towards deindustrialization under way. High electricity prices, resulting in particular from Germany's strategic mistakes, are forcing "electro-intensive" manufacturers to reduce their activity or even close factories. The use of renewable energies, due to the intermittency and the investments to be made in the networks, which often meet with hostility from the populations concerned, has been considered for too long as the appropriate solution. There is a major uncertainty about the continent's ability to meet the new needs arising from electrification while meeting their emission targets, while the European institutions have adopted a proactive policy in favour of electric vehicles that is unparalleled in any other country.

The electrification of the world, although unevenly intense across continents, is an irreversible phenomenon and will contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It will provide a response to the needs generated by the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. But it does not mean the end of fossil fuels until major innovations have proven themselves in the field of storage or use of natural resources such as hydrogen or biofuels.

Europe must become aware of these realities. The continent is one of the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases, largely thanks to the composition of its electricity mix. Imposing restrictive and overly complex regulations on member states and an electricity price system that has so far discouraged the use of nuclear power affects the competitiveness of companies and purchasing power. All this weighs on the activity without making any contribution, on the contrary, to the achievement of its objectives in favour of the environment. The time has come to become aware of reality and to get out of these contradictions.