The announcement of the downward revision of the French growth forecast for 2026 by the Ministry of Finance, reduced to 0.4% from 0.7% initially estimated, is not a surprise. The Bank of France had already reduced its to 0.6% in August. But the very negative comments that accompanied it are excessive and the European comparisons unwelcome. In an increasingly difficult international context, including a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices and a summer marked by a real climate catastrophe, France will escape recession. Germany, after being plunged into it for two years, is barely out ...

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Political news in France is focused on the preparation of the 2027 budget, in the run-up to the next presidential election and in a context where the general rise in interest rates is affecting public finances already degraded by heavy debt. The stabilization of the deficit at around 5% of GDP in 2026 is not a given due to an unstable international environment that weighs on growth and new spending required by the consequences of the weather events that occurred this summer. 

If we put aside the project of cancelling part of the debt that would make France look like ...

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Natural disasters, fires, heat waves and drought are hitting France hard this year. It is not yet possible to assess the short-term financial consequences and the investments to be made in the future, but this should not distract attention from the current economic challenges and the responses that need to be provided to them, particularly in the run-up to the next presidential election.

INSEE has published its estimate of growth in the 2nd quarter (0%), i.e. a timid rebound compared to the slight decline observed in the 1st quarter (-0.2%), which prevents France from entering a recession. But ...

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