Except if there are, as during these last three years, major events, by nature unforeseeable, hurting the world economy, we would not know in 2023 a heavy recession. But the crisis will leave lasting traces which will affect the action of the public authorities and the behaviors of the economic agents. The world is coming into a new era. That already had occurred in the past, in the days following the Second World War with a long growth period and after the Berlin Wall fall, which had marked the end of the Cold War, with the emergence of the globalization ...

Continue reading

Forecasting is a difficult art. Yet, in economy, it is one of the main centers of interest. But the exercise is a little distorted. An optimism excess may incite the economic agents to take decisions whose consequences would be heavy if the expectations are not fulfilled. To the opposite, good surprises quickly make forgotten the pessimistic statements and the credibility of their authors are not affected by that. 2022, as the two previous years, has known an unprecedent succession of events since the second world war having heavy economic repercussions. They were, due to their nature, impossible to predict as ...

Continue reading

Economic science is frequently based on reasonings. They could reveal themselves right and the authorities which have taken the decisions which were based on them and their populations are taking the benefits. But they can also lead to failures with heavy consequences; this is not new and this not only regards France. A century ago, Keynes, then a member of the British delegation which was negotiating what will become the Versailles Treaty resigned because he thought that the sanctions imposed to Germany were too heavy and could send the country into a crisis. We know what happened after, with the ...

Continue reading