Government satisfaction expressed during last council of Ministers at the Elysée palace this week, after the publication of the first estimation of 4th quarter (+0.2%) and last year (+1,1%) growth was not justified. Official comments which were accompanying it gave a too favorable presentation of the reality. They were not convincing since they depend on the basis of the comparison. The result is higher than in 2014 (+0.2%) but it was not very difficult. On the opposite, our major competitors did much better, the U.S. and the U.K. both were around 2.5% and ...

Continue reading

2016 will be, in Europe, a critical year but not for the reasons we think. A Brexit is unlikely. To gamble with the idea in a poll or at the Commons, in order to show his dissatisfaction is one thing, to risk to destabilize the economy of his country is a different thing. The City relies on the implantation of international banks and a lot of non European enterprises have chosen England as an entry point to Europe. Its deficit financing depends on foreign investors. Electors begin to be aware of these realities. Prime Minister Cameron knows it. But, in ...

Continue reading

Everyone should be happy with such a result which contrasts with the doubts affecting the durability of U.S. growth, the feeble rebound in Europe and the secular stagnation in Japan. But it’s not the case. This 6.9% figure is immediately accompanied with the following comment: “the worst achievement in 25 years”. China GDP has reached, in 2015, a level near 11 000 billions dollars. Year on year, production  has risen by almost 700 billions dollars, roughly a third of French GDP, whose increase, last year, was as little as 20 billions dollars. But any news coming from ...

Continue reading