Except if there are, as during these last three years, major events, by nature unforeseeable, hurting the world economy, we would not know in 2023 a heavy recession. But the crisis will leave lasting traces which will affect the action of the public authorities and the behaviors of the economic agents. The world is coming into a new era. That already had occurred in the past, in the days following the Second World War with a long growth period and after the Berlin Wall fall, which had marked the end of the Cold War, with the emergence of the globalization ...

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Forecasting is a difficult art. Yet, in economy, it is one of the main centers of interest. But the exercise is a little distorted. An optimism excess may incite the economic agents to take decisions whose consequences would be heavy if the expectations are not fulfilled. To the opposite, good surprises quickly make forgotten the pessimistic statements and the credibility of their authors are not affected by that. 2022, as the two previous years, has known an unprecedent succession of events since the second world war having heavy economic repercussions. They were, due to their nature, impossible to predict as ...

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The place China has taken in the world economy has become so important that its difficulties have repercussions at the planet scale. That economic success took a long time to come. The President Mao has given back to the country its unit and its sovereignty after more than a century of Western and Japanese aggressions and people will be grateful to him forever for that. But his economic results, with the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution were disastrous. That did not impeach Alain Peyrefitte in 1973 in the conclusion of his book” When China wakes up” to praise ...

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