The media impact of economic news publications is mainly the result of their predictive nature. It is not new. Since the beginning of humanity, and astrology emergence can testify of it, men are obsessed by what may arrive to them and pay a lot of attention to those who pretend to tell it to them. The success of economics and of the economists is the current version of this phenomenon. There is not a single day without the release of economic forecasts. Due to the necessary delay to gather numbers we are at the point where we forecast or revise ...

Continue reading

Is a public statement, even if it has been pronounced by the president, enough to convince us? And does it reflect the reality? The announcement of a slightly better than expected growth for the 1^st quarter, a significant reduction of unemployment, along with the signature of a major contract with Australia related to the sale of submarines, are definitely good news. Regarding to the job market, it is undisputable. Figures are volatile, from months to months and transfers between different categories of jobseekers can affect their interpretation but there is no doubt the vertiginous rise, recorded during the last ...

Continue reading

Comments by the French President definitely don’t correspond to the feeling of French people, according to poll opinions. Skepticism after his TV interview and growing discontent are reflected by very unfavorable vote intentions for the left, in the prospect of the 2017 election. Definitely, poll opinions are frequently wrong a year before the term but the magnitude of the rejection is, this time, without precedent.

So, how France is doing? Last week results show that the quasi stagnation we endure since 2012 has been replaced by a shy rebound. And it is not strong enough to produce a significant ...

Continue reading