We remember the phrase attributed to General de Gaulle: "Brazil is a country of the future and it will remain so for a long time". Perhaps he was inspired by Stefan Zweig's book, "Brazil, Land of the Future", written in 1941 shortly after settling in the country to flee Nazism. The question is still relevant today, when we see the tremendous transformation that has taken place in China and the rapid growth that India is experiencing today. Why has a country with such large nature reserves and which offers the world exceptional writers, musicians or architects such as Oscar Niemeyer who contribute to its international influence not been able to build a development model that will allow it to finally become a great economic power?

The political journey has been turbulent, with democratic regimes sometimes interrupted by dictatorial periods and regularly experiencing political crises with convicted presidents. This instability has not been conducive to effective public action to ensure solid growth and financial balances. The next presidential election will take place in 2026 and the popularity of the current head of state, Lula, is low while his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, is threatened with heavy legal proceedings. No one really breaks through in the centre of the political chessboard, and the leaders of several states who have so far demonstrated their skills on the ground prefer to pursue their local action rather than be candidates.

Growth is modest for a developing country. It is between 2 and 3% for the period 2024-2025, a level that is insufficient to lift a significant part of the population out of poverty. To remedy this, the government has adopted a policy of supporting demand with an increase in social transfers and an increase in the budget deficit. But the central bank has adopted a restrictive policy with a base interest rate of 14% to support the currency. This did not prevent the Brazilian currency from continuing to fall, especially against the euro, which reached 6.20 reals. Inflation, which is a recurring problem in the Brazilian economy, has not been defeated. It had still exceeded 10% at the beginning of 2022 before falling again. But it remains above 5% according to the latest figures published for the month of February.

Foreign trade has posted a surplus of more than $40 billion in recent years, but the nature of trade reflects one of the structural weaknesses of the Brazilian economy, its low industrialization. More than half of exports are raw materials and agricultural products, while imports are mainly made up of manufactured products, 40% from three countries, China, the United States and Germany. France accounts for only 2% of Brazil's exports and only 1% of its imports.

The energy model is original, with primary energy consumption growing slightly (1% on average between 2013 and 2023), and above all per capita half that of China, India and European countries and up to four times that of the United States. CO2 emissions from the energy sector are ten times lower than in the United States but twice as high as in France. This is made possible by an electricity mix made up of nearly 50% dams and renewable energies, which has allowed electricity production to increase from 570 to 710 TWh.  Coal and natural gas consumption is marginal. Thanks to the discovery of deep-water deposits off the coast, Brazil now has abundant oil resources. In ten years, production has increased from 2 to 3.5 million barrels per day, which covers the country's needs and has contributed to the surpluses in the trade balance. At the time, the leaders perceived the importance of these discoveries and some, with a little humor, even declared that "God was therefore Brazilian".

How is it then that this country has not succeeded in building a development model that would allow it to hold a leading position in the world economy? Two answers will be put forward here. The first concerns the weakness of the manufacturing industry and the absence, with a few exceptions such as Embraer, of companies that have been able to impose themselves on world markets. The rise of Japan from the 1960s and China from the 1990s onwards was the result of the emergence of groups which, after establishing themselves in their countries, established themselves in Europe and the United States, which gave them a sufficient size to compete with local producers and become world-class players.

The case of the automotive industry is revealing. There is no Brazilian manufacturer. The same can be said of the pharmaceutical industry and of course of capital goods and electronics, where the country is dependent on imports or local production by foreign companies. While Brazil is admired around the world for its cultural creations, it is largely absent in the markets for high-tech goods, which are sources of skilled employment and therefore generate much higher incomes for households. Brazil is the big absentee from the global industry. 

The second reason for the weakness of its economy is the inability of its leaders to create a model of shared prosperity. The country is profoundly unequal. This is obvious in large cities where around neighborhoods where housing is luxurious and commercial activity is largely devoted to high-end products, there are huge areas that in France would be called "shanty towns" and which are the famous "favellas". The absence of urban planning regulations allowed them to be carried out, often carried out by construction workers, who temporarily left their jobs to build their own homes.

So there are two Brazil. The jobs created are low-skilled and the income insufficient to generate domestic demand for the development of local businesses. By acquiring a global scale, they would create enough wealth to fuel the country's growth through the general rise in living standards. This is not the case, unlike what has happened in Europe, the United States and several Asian countries. These deep inequalities have also been the cause of disorder and political crises, but the various regimes that have succeeded each other have not found the appropriate response.

It first goes through school and vocational training. The millions of children living far from the big urban centers or in the "favellas" do not benefit from the same education, if any, as those in the upscale neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo where the sons and daughters of bankers, lawyers or doctors, benefit from high schools and universities of a level quite comparable to what is found in developed countries. But there are not enough of them to build an economic model based on companies capable of generating the strong growth that is essential to Brazil's development.

Thanks to its natural wealth and an elite that has nothing to envy to that of rich countries, Brazil is obviously a country of the future. But a large majority of its population is not affected. It is up to the managers to find ways to remedy this.