We remember. That was in 1974. Richard Nixon had to resign as President of the United States. It was then proven that his party, with his support, had spied on his competitor, the Democratic candidate, in 1972 during the presidential campaign that had led him to the White House. The site of these misdeeds was a building located in Washington, the Watergate Office Building, hence the name, taken up by the media and today by the history of the scandal. Nearly twenty years later, President Clinton was accused of having had a sexual relationship with one of his aides, Monica Lewinski. By analogy, and given the shocking nature of this revelation, the case was called the "Monica-Gate" and the reference will still be used several times. But this did not prevent the president from completing his term.

The dominant fact of the presidential team that moved into the White House in January is the exceptional relationship between Donald Trump and the richest man in the world, Elon Musk. He owes his fortune to the success of his electric cars, the Tesla, whose market capitalization has soared, and then his Star X rockets. This fortune allowed it to enter the social media market by acquiring Twitter, renamed X, and to have levers of influence of increasing importance. Even though this man does not have an official public title, the president continues to appear with him and has entrusted him with the mission of making significant cuts in public spending.

This is how the "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)" was created and Elon Musk was entrusted with the task. This very quickly led to the announcement of drastic spending cuts ($100 billion), the elimination of institutions and tens of thousands of layoffs. Several of these measures have been challenged in court and some have been annulled. The budgetary effects remain modest for the time being, as it has just been announced that spending had increased by 40 billion (+7%) in February. The president's unwavering support for his unofficial adviser has only strengthened their relationship, despite the growing hostility of the administrations concerned.

But the proliferation of Donald Trump's decisions, sometimes reversed the very next day, are beginning to raise some concern about the growth prospects of the American economy and they pose a threat to several industrial activities such as the automotive industry. The abandonment of any ambition in terms of reducing greenhouse gases, the unambiguous support given to the development of fossil fuels also casts doubt on the future of electric vehicles in the United States. The growing unpopularity of the American president and his close adviser is causing consumers in countries hit by customs measures to boycott American products and therefore Tesla. This is now extending to Starlink communications satellite networks, which are being put into orbit by Elon Musk's rockets. While India, anxious to get closer to the United States, has confirmed its interest, this is no longer the case in Europe and especially in Italy, which is thinking of abandoning its cooperation to return to Eutelsat.

The new US economic policy is worrying and this may also have repercussions on the growth of its traditional trading partners. The Banque de France has just revised its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7% from 0.9% initially forecast. The doubt is just as real on the other side of the Atlantic. The employment figures in February are disappointing and are not likely to improve as a result of DOGE's action. Growth is expected to be well below 2% in 2025 while inflation is struggling to return to 2%, the Federal Reserve's target. The situation is likely to worsen with the consequences on imported consumer goods of the increase in customs duties decided against Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

It should therefore come as no surprise that we are witnessing a turnaround in the financial markets. Wall Street welcomed the election of Donald Trump late last year. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq had reached record highs. Europe's lag behind the United States was underlined by the difference in the evolution of the indices on both sides of the Atlantic. The situation has now changed a lot with a severe reversal: both indices have fallen by 10 and 12% from their peaks. Judgment is increasingly critical of Donald Trump's economic policy and one of the most affected stocks has been Tesla.

After the enthusiasm generated by the result of the election in November, which brought the stock to its highest level of $488, it fell back to $233 on March 10, a drop of more than 50%. Elon Musk has lost several hundred billion dollars in a few months. The disappointing outlook for the U.S. economy has been compounded by consumer hostility toward the brand owner. From the end of last year, there was a sharp drop in registrations in Europe and China. Aware of the situation, the American president was filmed getting into a new model and even announced that he was going to buy one. But there is little chance that this gesture of solidarity will convince many potential customers.

The relationship between the two men is bound to be affected. Elon Musk's action at the head of DOGE is starting to worry the president's entourage. The numerous legal disputes caused by the cuts in jobs or public institutions are invoked in the White House to explain the president's growing unpopularity. Elon Musk cannot remain indifferent to the threats to Tesla or Star Link, threats directly linked to his proximity to Donald Trump and the task he has entrusted to him. Therefore, a break-up, or even a divorce, cannot be ruled out.

Who will take the initiative? The American president has not shown in the past a great ability to admit his mistakes. His desire to debureaucratize the administration would probably be better received if the method used were less brutal. But withdrawing his confidence in Elon Musk could appear as an admission of weakness that is completely incompatible with his conception of power, even if around him, such a measure will not fail to be proposed to him.

Elon Musk's situation is different. It is her professional and financial success that is in question if because of her presence with Donald Trump, she is seriously affected. However, there is very little chance that in Europe, the image of the American administration will be rehabilitated and especially the Chinese competition on the electric vehicle market, which will inevitably intensify, is likely to call into question the very existence of Tesla. Its founder cannot ignore it. If there were to be a break-up or divorce, whatever form it takes, the initiative is more likely to come from the businessman than from the political leader.

But the consequences would be spectacular, as the beginning of Donald Trump's second term was marked by the place that this unique relationship has occupied in American political history. This is why, in the absence of any scandalous character, despite the multiple conflicts of interest to which it has given rise, we could perhaps speak of a "Tesla-Gate".