Every year, the oil group BP, this time in association with the consultant Energy Research, publishes accurate statistics regarding production and consumption of all energy sources in every country. The year 2023 results show the growth trend of fossil fuels production and consumption has gone on. Deep divergences exist between countries. The countries which are the most committed to the fight against climate warming, as France, are these which are carrying the less the responsibility. A deep gap is so persisting between political speech and realities.
Oil world production between 2013 and 2023 has grown from 86.6 to 96.4 million barrels per day. This increase is mainly the result of the American fields with the exploitation of the shale oil. Country production overpassed 19 million barrels per day against 10 million ten years ago. Elsewhere in the world, the low increase (2 million barrels per day) observed in the Middle East has compensated the diminution observed in Nigeria, in Angola, in Mexico and in Indonesia.
The increase of the American production has allowed to meeting the local consumption and especially the strong growth of the needs of emerging countries (China: +60%, India: +48%, South Korea: +14%). In Europe, the accomplished efforts made by the main economies (France: -12%, Germany: -18%) have been offset by Turkey consumption: +40%. Japan looks like the good pupil with a 26% fall. It is so observed a very large disparity in the oil use but, in no cases, despite the keeping of a high price level, a global fall which would allow a reduction of the greenhouse gas.
Situation is worse regarding coal which not only contribute to climate warming through stronger emissions than the other fossil fuels but also whose firing provokes the rejection in the atmosphere of harmful particles. The British had invented a term to qualify the air in London, the “smog” which is the merger between the fog and the smoke which comes from the local coal power plants. Production and consumption fall (-55%) has been spectacular in the U.S. The power plants have been converted to natural gas, abundant and cheap, thanks to the shale gas fields. It has been divided by two in Europe (Germany: -47%) and has remained stable elsewhere in the world, except in Asia which represents now three quarters of the consumption, where, to the opposite, it has increased by 18%. No global progress has so been accomplished regarding this highly polluting fuel.
Natural gas has taken profit both from the new extraction techniques (hydraulic fracking) and from the new transportation ones with liquefaction. In ten years, world production and consumption have increased by 18%. The production rises in the U.S., in China and in Australia have allowed to compensating the extinction of the reserves in the North Sea. It has also allowed to satisfying a strong demand increase, liquefaction making possible the natural gas transportation through oceans. LNG flows came from 327 billion to 549 billion m3 in ten years. This trend would become stronger in the future because the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has put in the first position the supply safety requirement.
The primary energy consumption evolution has been quite different between continents. In ten years, it increased by 15%, Asia growing by 32.7% and the U.S. by 2.3%. Europe, to the contrary, has seen its consumption falling by 10%, thanks notably to France (-17%). In proportion with the number of inhabitants, the spread between Asia (+22.6%) and the U.S. (-4.5%) is narrowing and Europe is still the exception with a fall by 11.5%. There so has not occurred a fall of the fossil fuels utilization and the efforts of the countries in favor of energy saving have been very unequally shared. Europe alone has brought a significant contribution.
With the energetic sobriety, electrification is shown as a way in the fight against climate warming, if that power is not produced with fossil fuels. These last ten years, production at the world level has strongly progressed, mainly supported by the Chinese (+74%) and Indian (+70.8%) ones.
In the U.S., the rise has followed economic growth, but the main factor has been the move from coal to the natural gas which is much less costly. In China, production has also followed growth but the demand has been too strong to make possible a reduction of the use of coal in the power plants which has again increased in 2023 (+6.3%) despite the strong progression of renewables (+22%) and the recourse to natural gas (+8%). India remains dependent from coal with a 74% share which does not diminish.
Europe is, once more, the good pupil with a stable power consumption and above all a large diversity between the production modes. Coal occupies now a very minority share (14%) as natural gas (17%) thanks to the strong development of renewables (30%), to the hydraulic power plants (17%) and to the nuclear (19%). Inside Europe, France, thanks to its nuclear power plants, has the lowest fossil fuels utilization ratio for its electricity production. To the opposite with the other large geographic zones, electrification does contribute in Europe to the reduction of its CO2 emissions.
The first conclusion we can take from these figures is that the world is not committed, to the opposite, to the way of a reduction of the fossil fuels use. If coal utilization is stagnating, oil and natural gas production is continuously increasing for ten years. No uncertainty weights on the availability of the resources and until now, no pressures are impeaching enterprises to invest to develop their production.
The second conclusion is the large diversity of situations in the world. Emerging countries, due to their strong growth, are these which have more and more recourse to fossil fuels. The U.S. have chosen to keep a very high utilization level but with a transfer from coal to natural gas, which is favorable to the reduction of emissions. Alone European countries have launched sobriety policies with a reduction of their fossil fuels consumption.
The third conclusion is that France is among the best pupils. Its primary consumption has been reduced by 2% each year for ten years. In proportion with its inhabitants, it is one of the lowest among the developed countries (half of the American one). Its emission level so is also, thanks to its power mix, one of the lowest.
The position of environment issues in the French political debate is so a paradox and the public resources devoted to them are out of proportion. Nuclear brings a decisive contribution which will be even stronger with the end of the power plants works and the connection to the grid of the EPR. A figure is revealing. The balance of electricity exchanges in May has reached a record with an unprecedent level of 9 TWh. France so is going to even more contribute in the future to the achievement of the objectives of a reduction of Europe emissions thanks to a de-carbonated electrification, which make more and more wishful the adoption of a reform of the European power market which corresponds to its needs.