Is a public statement, even if it has been pronounced by the president, enough to convince us? And does it reflect the reality? The announcement of a slightly better than expected growth for the 1^st quarter, a significant reduction of unemployment, along with the signature of a major contract with Australia related to the sale of submarines, are definitely good news. Regarding to the job market, it is undisputable. Figures are volatile, from months to months and transfers between different categories of jobseekers can affect their interpretation but there is no doubt the vertiginous rise, recorded during the last ...

Continue reading

Comments by the French President definitely don’t correspond to the feeling of French people, according to poll opinions. Skepticism after his TV interview and growing discontent are reflected by very unfavorable vote intentions for the left, in the prospect of the 2017 election. Definitely, poll opinions are frequently wrong a year before the term but the magnitude of the rejection is, this time, without precedent.

So, how France is doing? Last week results show that the quasi stagnation we endure since 2012 has been replaced by a shy rebound. And it is not strong enough to produce a significant ...

Continue reading

The publications of indicators showing an improvement of French public accounts and  a stabilization of its debt, has been immediately followed by alarming comments on its still excessive level and on the risks it weighs on the country.

First, this rhetoric has no influence on international investors. Since the beginning of the year, The Treasury has issued short term paper carrying negative interest rates, close to –0.5% recently. So, subscribers have agreed to pay an interest to the State to acquire its securities. Switzerland, Japan and Germany are in the same situation. The result is also favorable when France ...

Continue reading