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AB 2000 studies

Alain Boublil Blog

   

World

Negative interest rates : the real risks

Every summer, central bankers and a clutch of economists gathered at Jackson Hole, the American Chamonix, in the Rocky Mountains. This time, attention was focused on Janet Yellen speech and her indications on next interest rates increases. We didn’t learn more because, following her habit, she procrastinated. But the debate about monetary policy role passed quite unnoticed. It is regrettable because it has become the main instrument of the economic policy, which is not anymore in government hands, since central banks got their independence. Highly indebted states, refusing to increase their budget deficit, relied on the decisions of their ...

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Brazil : the two crisis

International media made large reports about the political crisis which shakes Brazil and which goes through developments for, now, six months. Next Sunday, a first vote by deputies will, probably, initiate the process which may lead to the impeachment of the president, Dilma Rousseff. She is blamed on account of a deceptive presentation of the country public accounts. This target has been chosen by her adversaries because it permits to start the procedure without any judiciary decision. But the real purpose is its role as president of Petrobras when severe corruption acts have been committed by managers which have already ...

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So, where has gone the crisis ?

The first quarter of 2016 is finishing in a much better situation than it has started. Invalidating, once more, analysis and forecasts of most of economists, the world has not been hurt by the failure of a major country, having consequences outside of its borders. There were no recessions among large developed economies and growth went on, only at a slower rhythm than it would be necessary to reduce disequilibrium caused by the 2007-2008 crisis, unemployment for some of them, excessive indebtedness for the others.

Chinese economy is following its path. Shanghai Stock Exchange is regaining, day after day, the ...

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