The recent evolution of the parity between the two major international currencies, the dollar and the euro, is full of lessons and will not be without consequences on the French economy. The euro remained stable against the dollar during almost two years, if we exclude a short period of doubt in November 2015. It fluctuated between 1.10 and 1.15. American elections approaching and the narrowing of the gap between the democrat candidate and Donald Trump generated a rise of the dollar. It reached 1.05$ against the euro, its highest level for 20 years, shortly after the election ...

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Moody’s rating agency has downgraded last week China sovereign debt notation. It echoes the numerous alerts about the excessive indebtedness of local authorities and state-owned companies. On the opposite, the State debt ratio (48%) would make many countries dreaming about it. That decision did not provoke any concern to financial markets. Shanghai, Taiwan and especially Hong Kong have followed their rise with, for the last one, a 16% increase since the beginning of the year. The Chinese risk is, in fact, overestimated and it is not new. The country has a huge current account surplus and currencies reserves above ...

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You don’t appoint Rex Tillerson, the Exxon C.E.O by chance to lead the State Department. Oil and fossil fuels have always played an important role in American policy, when it comes to price issues or relations with producing countries, as it was during the Bush era, both the father and his son, who started their carrier in Texas, the most important producing State. Donald Trump is reviving the tradition. But the stakes are different because the world today became more complex, American production has evolved and the Middle East is put to fire and sword.

During the ...

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