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AB 2000 studies

Alain Boublil Blog

   

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Growth : The worst is to be feared

INSEE has just published, along with its first estimation of the GDP evolution during the 1st quarter, figures of household goods consumption in March and inflation in April. These figures are important because they allow making a first analysis of the economic agents reaction to the lockdown measures adopted since March 16th. GDP has fallen by 5.8% compared to the previous quarter and household goods consumption by 17% compared to March 2019. Inflation, month on month, has been 0.1%, i.e. on one year 0.4%.

The GDP fall is especially alarming that it comes after ...

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The new oil crisis (next)

The oil prices slump last week has given to the crisis resulting from the corona virus outbreak a new dimension. It has weighted on the financial markets which were starting to hope thanks to the reduction of the mortality rate and the announcement of the first measures about the end of lockdown. The quotation with a maturity date of the American petrol (measured by the WTI index) went even into negative territory and the Brent index, which is a representative one for the rest of the world, went below 20 dollars per barrel. It had fluctuated between 50 and 60 ...

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Which rebound for the Chinese economy ?

The Year of the Rat was looking promising for the Chinese economy at the Lunar New Year vacations Eve. When European and American economies were running out of steam, a first step in the conclusion of a trade agreement with the United States had been cleared and the risks of a tensions worsening were passing. 2019 growth  had over passed 6% and that was a result that would have made the whole world envious. December figures were even showing an accelerating trend. The sanitary catastrophe which occurred in January, when according to the tradition hundreds of millions of Chinese are ...

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