In an increasingly fragmented and unstable international environment, China appears to be a pillar of growth in the world economy. The 5% increase in GDP over one year in the 1st quarter shows that, unlike the main developed countries, the country has not yet been affected by the consequences of the war in the Middle East. Uncertainties about fossil fuel supplies, with the resulting sharp price increases, as well as disruptions to maritime traffic, have not resulted in a significant rebound in inflation or threats to production chains.

The rate of 5% is identical to that published for the year 2025 but it had slowed slightly in the 2nd half of the year, with growth of 4.5% in the 4th quarter, which therefore testifies to the current solidity of the Chinese economy. The 15th Plan, which will cover the period 2026-2030, has not set a precise target but a range (4.5%-5%) for future growth, showing the prudence of the authorities. The beginning of the year is therefore in line with their expectations but higher than the forecasts of international institutions which placed growth at 4.8%. The IMF, for the year as a whole, has set its forecast at 4.4%.

Inflation picked up slightly in March due to higher energy prices, marking a break after three years of negative or zero inflation. Consumer prices rose by 1% in March and producer prices in industry by 0.5%. Industrial production continued to rise in March (+5.7% year-on-year after +6.3% in January-February) but private investment, affected by the real estate sector still in crisis (-11% over the quarter) only increased by 1.7%. On the other hand, the State has continued its policy of infrastructure development and investment in energy in order to achieve its objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The main change revealed by the latest figures published concerns foreign trade and reflects the gradual transformation of the Chinese economy. By 2025, exports had reached $3.857 billion, up 6.1 percent, and imports had reached $2.64 trillion, up only 0.5 percent. During the first quarter of 2026, exports represented 977 billion (+12%) and imports 713 billion or +19.6%. This last figure reflects international political tensions, and in particular the rise in fossil fuel prices, but also the strategy of Chinese companies wishing to accumulate stocks in order to have the raw materials and components necessary for their activity in the event of an aggravation of tensions. The trade surplus remains very high with 264 billion, close to the average observed for each quarter in 2025.

But geographical flows as well as the nature of trade reveal the transformation underway in the Middle Kingdom. Exports to Europe continued to grow (+17.6%) and to Southeast Asia (+27%) while they fell to the United States (-16.6%) following repeated announcements, sometimes followed by withdrawals, of customs duties. Since the beginning of the year, the United States has accounted for less than 10% of China's foreign trade and the European Union 24%.

We are therefore witnessing a gradual transformation of China's place in world trade. While growth has remained at the same level, its drivers are changing. The country had long been a supplier to developed countries, which had set up factories there and benefited from re-exports of finished products at an advantageous price for their own customers. Chinese companies are now able to compete in their markets with companies in developed countries and supply the rest of the world, again in competition with those they had abundantly supplied in the past.

So we're moving from a time when China produced spare parts to a time when its companies have become world leaders. The composition of exports is revealing. During the 1st quarter of 2026, foreign sales of electric vehicles increased by 77%, batteries by 50% and turbines for wind turbines by 45%. Chinese companies are the world leader in the production of rare metals, solar panels and humanoid robots, among others.

But this transformation of the Chinese economic model requires a very active foreign policy aimed at concluding partnerships with as many countries as possible that allow Chinese companies to have access to these new markets. It is reflected in intense and continuous diplomatic activity. While the United States and Europe have mobilized to end the two wars, in Ukraine after Russia's invasion and in the Middle East, Beijing has continued to multiply meetings and the conclusion of economic and political agreements in recent months.

Many heads of state or government have visited Beijing or exchanged by videoconference over the past two months. Vietnam's newly elected President To Lam came to conclude agreements on infrastructure construction and financing, high-tech partnerships and a student exchange programme. Vladimir Putin's close friend, Sergei Lavrov, took part in the celebration of the various treaties between the two countries, including on the supply of oil and natural gas, within the framework of the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings.

Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister, visited China for the third time to strengthen ties between the two countries, discuss sensitive issues of energy and innovations needed by the sector and cooperate to support multilateralism and world peace. He held talks with Premier Li Qiang on issues related to electric vehicles and battery supply. The Chinese president also welcomed Prince Al Noyen of Abu Dhabi to discuss the current situation in the Persian Gulf and its consequences on the oil and natural gas markets.

Finally, President Xi Jinping received, for the first time in ten years, the leader of the Kuomintang, which is the main opposition party in Taiwan, Cheng Li-wum. This party is in favour of strengthening ties with Beijing and totally hostile to the idea of independence. The economic stakes are as important as the political ones. The island's companies are among the world leaders in the production of electronic components. They need the rare metals produced by Chinese companies as much as they need the components manufactured there. Peace on both sides of the strait that separates them is a necessity for them. 

So China's growth drivers have changed. Its persistence depends on the success of Beijing's intense cooperation efforts. It is therefore important to understand the issues at stake and to draw all the consequences because there is a deep link between the transformation of the Chinese economic model and the current diplomatic activity of its leaders.

If the European Union does not realise this or ignores it, it will be the first victim, whereas if, on the contrary, in-depth discussions are conducted, it will be possible to find common ground and conclude agreements where everyone will win. France's role will be to pay the greatest attention to this new challenge and to mobilize its companies to meet it.