Attention is now monopolized by the Middle East conflict, by its consequences on the supply of raw materials after the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and by the succession of statements by the President of the United States on the evolution of the situation. Meanwhile, in Beijing, Chinese leaders met to discuss and then approve the 15th Plan, which will serve as a framework for their action from 2026 to 2030. This provides a clear idea of the direction that the world's second largest economy will take and the evolution of its influence linked to its weight in international trade in goods and services.
The 15th Plan first contains a growth target set on average in the range of 4.5 to 5%. It has already been the subject of much criticism in the West. This would be the lowest pace in nearly thirty years. But this objection makes no sense because it is not meaningful to compare growth rates over a long period of time. The size of the Chinese economy is no longer anything like that of the 1990s in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. Secondly, the choice to set a range is new. It is justified by the authors of the Plan by the need to take into account the unprecedented uncertainty that reigns over the world economy, which they describe by means of a beautiful metaphor: "one day we have a grey rhinoceros and the next day a black swan".
The 15th Plan should contribute to the achievement of the objective for 2035, which is to have a GNP per capita equal to that of "moderately developed" countries, which would require an average annual growth rate of 4.17% for the period. The 2026 target is already above this target and reveals a proactive approach to economic policy and a new development strategy by continuously supporting domestic demand and the creation of skilled jobs. A $15.4 billion plan is planned this year to this end. The recovery in inflation (+1.3% in February after 0.3% in January year-on-year) reflects the evolution of household behaviour, such as the sharp increase in tourism spending observed during the New Year's holidays.
The medium-term vision of foreign trade has also evolved, as illustrated by this new metaphor: "Exports and imports work like the two wheels of a vehicle. The more balanced they are, the better and further the vehicle moves." The amount of Chinese imports reached 2,680 billion dollars in 2025, or 10% of the world total. Thanks to its growth, the support of household demand and its policy of opening up its markets, China believes that it will contribute to global growth by increasing its imports in the coming years.
It also aims to improve the employment situation with the objective of creating 12 million new jobs in urban areas each year. To this end, it is planned to launch a training programme for 10 million people and public spending on the standard of living (education, social security and employment in particular) representing 1800 billion dollars. This reflects the new concept of development that moves from infrastructure and investments in physical achievements to the construction of vast human capital.
The Chinese economic model is changing. It is now generally accepted that the days when the country was content to be the "factory of the world" are over. The industrial groups have acquired the know-how and have the necessary manufacturing techniques. The size of their domestic market provides them with a major competitive factor through the series effect, and they are now able to compete in their market and in the world market with their Western and Japanese competitors. The example of electric cars will not be an isolated case. But China will not stop there.
Two major transitions are planned, the ecological transition and the digital transition. A 17% reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP is announced for 2030. To this end, the government has put in place an ecological supply-side policy aimed at accelerating the installation of renewable energy production capacities. In 2025, solar and wind power in China produced as much as in the 27 Member States of the European Union. The continued construction of coal-fired power plants aims to compensate for the intermittency of renewable energies, to guarantee greater autonomy for the country that produces little gas and to replace old, polluting power plants.
The digital transition will be the great challenge of the 21st century with the development of artificial intelligence, in which China shares the leading position with the United States. For this, the country has exceptional training capacities with universities that are among the best in the world in scientific disciplines. Every year, several million graduates join teaching and research centers and companies to develop new software or adapt it to their specific needs or to build data centers.
They will contribute to the increase in electricity consumption, but this will benefit from a distribution network that will make it possible to optimize production according to needs thanks to artificial intelligence. The "Eastern data, Western computing" program locates data centers where green electricity production is most important and data storage where it is used. This is enabled through powerful networks and provides companies with the means to accomplish their projects. The State has understood that the success of the digital transition will be based on close cooperation between universities, research centres and the industrial fabric.
The 15th Plan is aware of the consequences of the development of artificial intelligence on employment, but takes up Schumpeter's logic of creative destruction. Beijing has launched a project to strengthen relations between universities, academia and companies that involves 26,000 master's and doctoral students. Joint funding programmes between public institutions and companies will be used to make investments in artificial intelligence and accelerate the convergence between academic research, technological patents and products or services provided by companies that meet the needs of their customers.
This will allow a new stage in industrial modernization with the transformation of production tools. After the successive transitions from manual work to machines, then to machine tools and robots, the latter will become, with AI, "humanoids" capable of new performance and generators of productivity and quality. China has been the leading market for ten years and has installed more than half of them in the world in recent years. The next Plan therefore provides for an acceleration, thanks to the training of the engineers responsible for implementing these new tools in companies. These will become even more competitive and will be able to meet the needs of their customers worldwide.
The 15th Plan reflects China's willingness to adapt to the new state of the world and to take advantage of the opportunities offered by technological progress. The experience of the past teaches us that it has every chance of achieving this and the objectives it has set for 2030. The President of the United States, who is travelling to Beijing at the end of the month, will be informed.