The increase in climatic incidents is raising awareness that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the cause. It is then the responsibility of States to conduct policies aimed at reducing them. But a consensus is difficult to reach because the phenomenon is global and there is no link between a country's action and the benefits it will be able to derive from it. It is the accumulation over the years that is the cause. Emerging countries, because of their growth, generate more and more emissions, but they can legitimately claim that they are much less responsible for the current situation than developed countries. China now accounts for 10% of emissions each year but accounts for only 12% of cumulative emissions since the beginning of the industrial era, compared to 30% in the United States and 20% in Europe.
The main cause of climate change lies in the production and especially the use of fossil fuels. For decades, we have witnessed the combustion of natural gas in the air (flaring) around the reservoirs. In France, to preserve the environment, a tax system favourable to diesel has been adopted on the pretext that engines consume less diesel, forgetting that they emit particles that are much more harmful to health. One after another, states have admitted that the use of fossil fuels must be gradually reduced and have adopted policies that favour the use of electricity.
The new US administration has backtracked and cut its subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, but this is an exception. At the global level, however, the use of fossil fuels has continued to grow. Coal production between 2014 and 2024 increased from 8.2 to 9.2 billion tonnes according to figures from the Energy Institute, which, after BP, publishes statistics on the production and consumption of each form of energy in each country every year. Thus, while American production has been halved, that of China, India and Indonesia has increased by more than 25%.
Also over 10 years, global oil production has risen from 88.7 to 96.9 million b/d as OPEC members meet regularly to curb their supply in order to maintain a remunerative price level. Thanks to new extraction techniques, companies had no difficulty in meeting ever-increasing demand, despite public statements by international bodies and political leaders calling for moderation if not abandonment of the use of fuels.
Finally, the increase in natural gas production has been even more spectacular, rising between 2014 and 2024 from 3.4 to 4.3 billion m3, an increase of 20% and 50% in Asia. Supply has been supported by the development of shale gas fields and demand has been better served thanks to liquefaction techniques that allow natural gas to be transported from one continent to another.
These trends therefore show that there has been neither stabilization nor, even less, a decrease in the use of fossil fuels in the past, in contradiction with public declarations and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Policies aimed at reducing energy consumption in developed countries have had little effect. And when we noticed a decrease, it was often the result of relocations. The country used fossil fuels less because it imported goods whose production required their use in the producing country.
In housing or offices, investments to improve insulation proved costly and above all complex to carry out since most of the time these buildings had many occupants who had difficulty agreeing to finance the work. Another aspect of the policy against global warming has been electrification, which has focused mainly on vehicles. But it has been followed very unevenly around the world.
In the United States, which is paradoxical since it is in this country that what was until this year the world's largest producer, Tesla, was born, the use of electric vehicles has met with little success and federal aid to buyers has been abolished this year. Registrations are expected to fall below 10% in 2026. The situation is exactly the opposite in China, where the share of electric vehicle registrations continues to rise and is expected to reach 50% in 2030. Europe is caught between its desire to support electrification by banning the combustion engine by 2035 and the defence of its industry, which is subject, in the electric car, to Chinese competition that could prove devastating. The objective of reaching a share of 40% of registrations will be very difficult to achieve.
The construction of "data centers" that will require significant consumption is another growth factor for electricity. But to achieve climate goals, it is imperative that production is less and less based on fossil fuels. Nuclear production is reserved for a few countries and the construction of power plants takes a long time, such as the construction of hydroelectric dams. The only real alternative for decarbonization is therefore renewable energies.
The latest report from the International Energy Agency indicates that by 2030, renewables will account for nearly 45% of electricity production. But this figure shows strong disparities between regions, as the largest effort is said to be made in China. Capacity would reach 2600 GW, almost double that of existing in 2024. The change in policy in the United States, including the suspension of solar panel and wind turbine projects in federal territories, has led to a downward revision of the capacity planned for 2030 to 250 GW from 375 GW expected.
Finally, Europe is continuing its efforts and has planned to increase its capacity by 67% by 2030. But renewables being intermittent and volatile, pose major problems for electricity grids, which must therefore invest to cope with them. The pricing system must also be adapted so that a fair sharing of costs is established between the investors who build solar panel fields and the large suppliers who are there to ensure that households and businesses have the electricity they need no matter what.
Security of supply is an essential factor, as the gigantic breakdown that occurred in the spring in Spain and Portugal has just demonstrated. The maintenance of competitive and non-intermittent capacities is therefore essential. But they can also contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions by replacing coal with natural gas in thermal power plants. This is what has enabled the United States to significantly reduce its emissions over the past ten years. The European Union could take an example from this. Instead of permanently stigmatising nuclear power, the Commission would do better to offer Germany and Poland the means to get out of their dependence on coal by using natural gas that does not come from Russia.
The end of fossil fuels is not for tomorrow. Instead, we should seek a redeployment between fossil fuels and above all to keep the necessary skills in companies to extract and transport them, because we will still need them for a long time.