There have been no examples in the recent past when the world was going to be confronted with so many situations carrying major risks, on the political or economic level, the latter often stemming from the former. The will to power of some heads of State has been at the origin of tensions and even wars in recent years, as we have seen with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The discontent provoked by the rise in unemployment and inequality, notably attributed to globalisation, has led to a strong increase in extremist parties at each election, leading them to the gates of power, and even, as in Hungary or Slovakia, to the head of State.

All attempts to end the war unleashed by Moscow have so far failed and it will enter its fourth year in 2025. China's support has enabled Russia to mitigate the consequences of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. They provided Ukraine with the military equipment and financial aid that enabled the country to resist the invasion. But Donald Trump's entry into office on 21 January may call into question the balance of power between Moscow and Kiev because he has announced that peace will be concluded "the day after he comes to power".

One possible scenario is that he proposes to the Ukrainian president to sign a ceasefire agreement and then a peace treaty that corresponds to Russian demands with the recognition of the territories annexed by Moscow. Otherwise, the United States would suspend all financial and military aid. This proposal would of course be rejected by Kiev and it would be up to Europe to take charge of Ukraine's defence. Given the economic and political situation in many EU Member States, there is a real risk that this responsibility will not be able to be assumed. Ukraine would then be forced to bow to the Kremlin's demands and after this defeat, there would be great concern about the possibility of a similar Russian operation on another neighbouring country.

The situation in the Middle East is different but equally worrying. The escalation is geographical. Israel's response to Hamas's terrorist action was initially focused on Palestine. Then, it spread to Lebanon and to a border area with Syria. It has finally reached Yemen, where rebel forces are constantly attacking Israeli interests in the region and boats that use the Red Sea. However, this area is strategic since ships transporting oil and liquefied natural gas to Europe transit through it. The new Syrian regime has not yet specified its political choices with regard to Western countries, but Iran has threatened to increase its enriched uranium production capacity, which constitutes a veiled threat. The destabilisation of this region, which is essential for fossil fuel supplies, is therefore a threat. It is impossible to rule out the outbreak of an oil crisis in the coming months, like those that occurred during the 1970s. It would be all the more severe as it would come in a context of reinforced sanctions targeting Europe's other main supplier, Russia.

Donald Trump's entry into office adds to this crisis context a factor of uncertainty likely to worsen the situation. The United States has been a pillar of global political stability for fifty years, despite sometimes unwelcome decisions (Iraq, Afghanistan). The next American president is known for his unpredictability while his decisions will concern major geopolitical and economic issues. His discourse on the questioning of the liberal model will be an additional risk factor until the time comes when his measures relating to trade in goods are specified and adopted. So far, the financial markets have reacted positively to his election. But such measures or even simple statements could prompt international investors to reconsider their stance. These are essential to finance the considerable double deficit (public and external) of the United States.

Could China restore to the global economy the stability jeopardized by the U.S. administration? For the moment, nothing is certain because the slowness, or even procrastination, shown by the country's leaders to revive their economy and rebalance activity towards domestic demand, is worrying. However, the progress made by Chinese industry allows it to take substantial market shares from their European and American competitors in many strategic sectors such as automotive, energy and tomorrow why not aeronautics. Chinese growth in the past had been beneficial to everyone. Its slowdown, accompanied by a strengthening of its export capacities, can seriously affect the economies of developed countries.

Until now, the European Union had been another pillar of stability. But the rise of populist parties and the deep and growing divisions between states have weakened it considerably. The stagnation affecting economies, with rare exceptions such as Spain, is discouraging investors and worrying households that have never saved so much, in France for example. The political uncertainties weighing on Germany on the eve of the Bundestag elections and on France are preventing Brussels from carrying out the necessary reforms, such as debureaucratisation or the adoption of an energy policy adapted to current challenges. The consequence was observed in 2024 with everywhere, at each election, a progression of parties critical of the European project. The Union was able to survive Brexit. She would not recover from a major crisis provoked in Germany or France.

However, in this already worrying international context, France is experiencing an unprecedented political situation. The elections that followed the dissolution of the National Assembly did not produce a majority. Political parties seem unable to find agreements to participate in a government and support its action by voting the budget and the legislative texts necessary to implement its policies. Since 2023, the country has had four Prime ministers, which is unprecedented since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. There is no guarantee that the one who has just been appointed will make it through the winter. However, no new dissolution can take place before June. There is a great risk that France will find itself plunged into a deep political crisis.

This situation comes at a time when the country is on the brink of a financial crisis due to excessive debt. The only remedy to reassure the financial markets and investors who lend to France is to adopt a set of credible measures likely to stabilize the debt ratio and begin to decline. But for this to happen, political support is needed in the long term, because the real effective measures accepted by public opinion will be those that will reduce the operating costs of the State and public authorities. Conversely, measures with immediate effect such as tax increases or reductions in benefits granted to households or companies arouse the hostility of economic agents and will not obtain sufficient support from the political forces to be adopted. Uncertainties and the risk of an institutional deadlock will therefore affect France in 2025 with inevitable consequences on unemployment while no political solution appears.

These are the international and national conditions for 2025. This does not prevent me, however, from wishing all the readers of the blog, for themselves and their loved ones, as good a year 2025 as possible.