The latest and most representative figures concerning French economy have been released a week ago: housing construction, consumer goods, industrial production, fiscal situation, and international trade. They provide a more accurate picture of the situation in the first quarter of 2015 and the trend for this year. But these figures do not suggest a return to growth in France that is to say to a significant level of growth able to stabilize unemployment if not to reduce it.  The optimistic speeches of economists must be relativized. Of course, a 1% growth rate shows some improvement compared to the past stagnation but this does not mean that "the crisis is behind us" and that "thanks to the reforms implemented," the future is bright. For the latest data contradict these optimistic forecasts.

The construction rate of new houses continued to decline in March, decreasing by almost 9% in the first quarter compared to the previous one. As for building permits, which foreshadow future activity, they were down 12.5% ​​over the last three months and 7% YoY. A further decline in activity in the construction sector this year is likely to occur. Moreover it impacted on almost two-thirds of the industrial output and weighed heavily on growth over the last five years. There is no possible and significant recovery in France with a continuation of current trends in housing construction. This is also paradoxical because this sector should be the first beneficiary of the dramatic decline in interest rates currently observed. But it is not the case due to the lack of confidence in the future and the administrative obstacles placed everywhere. The tentative recovery of loans, which was recorded in the first quarter, corresponded, in reality, to the renegotiation of the loans contracted when rates were three to four times higher.

Industrial production has made little progress since the beginning of the year. Its rise (1.4%) compared to the previous quarter was mainly due to some climatic effect, which has not been fully reflected by seasonal corrections. An unusually mild autumn caused a drop in production and energy consumption at the end of 2014 and has mechanically been followed by a recovery due to winter season, at the beginning of 2015. In March 2015, industrial production did not exceed the level reached in 2010. This stagnation covers very disparate sectorial trends: transport sectors (aeronautics and, to a lesser extent automobile), chemistry, pharmacy and offsetting refining, compensated the drop in production recorded in all other sectors. This disparity in performance makes obvious the little relevance of any general reasoning made about “competitiveness”.

The evolution of industrial production is related to the behaviour of households in terms of consumer goods.  All in all consumption has been stable. After the fall in energy consumption in October and November, one noticed a recovery in December followed by a strong relapse in March. Car purchases, and to a lesser extent, housing equipment, have raised significantly, offsetting the weakness of the other sectors.

These results are all the more disappointing that they are in an economic environment that was presented as favourable: the triple decline of the euro, oil and interest rates. If we look at the external accounts and the fiscal position of the country, we can see that the hopes placed in this "divine surprise" did not materialize. This is especially true for foreign trade, which should have also take advantage of this situation, if we stick to the arguments of economists: its contribution to growth for the 1st quarter is likely to be negative. Exports remained stable, albeit at a high level for a country like France (111.6 billion) while imports increased by 1.2 billion to 123.6 billion.  By increasing the value of all our imports, the decline of the euro offset the savings made on the fuel bill due to the fall in oil prices - particularly strong in this period. Over a year, the very limited increase in exports (+ 2.6%) also shows that our companies have actually benefited somewhat from the sharp depreciation of the euro (almost 20%).

Finally, budget data reflects the gloomy climate and the magnitude of the various devices for businesses. VAT revenues are stalls, in line with consumption. The jump in January was offset by declines in subsequent months. The corporate tax is experiencing a new and sharp decline: -16% while direct taxes on households (income tax and various duties) increased by 8.7%, representing an additional charge of more than 2 billion.  One should probably also include in these statements the revenues from tax adjustments.

On the expenditure side, public investment fell sharply, but the beginning of the year data is insignificant while the state operating costs continue to soar. The debt burden, on the contrary, denies once again the forecast made by Bercy and is already 28% lower than last year. The rebound that occurred recently, which has been measured on long-term rates, is more technical and does not really reveal a trend reversal. A similar phenomenon occurred a few months after launching similar programs to those that has launched the ECB, the US and Japan. The state has taken advantage of it by placing 8.5 billion on maturities of 8 to 12 years at rates below or close to 1%. We are far from the forecast made in the budget law, which anticipated an average rate for the year of 2.2%.

This economic assessment is actually no surprise. The supply policy and the depreciation of the euro have not had significant effects on growth, due to a lack of relay in domestic demand, such as consumption of households, the housing construction or investment companies. The reduction of budget deficit remains limited, lacking buoyant revenue, which could be caused by the increase in activity rather than by raising taxes. Finally, insufficient improvement in external trade crippled the hopes placed in the decline of the euro. The French economy is still not safe.