Finally a good figure! In December, French exports reached their highest level in nearly two years, increasing by 3.6% compared to December 2013.

In 2014, the total amount of the exports reached 437 billion and got close to the peak reached in 2012.

France, no offense to the "declinists" is the fifth largest exporter, and the second per capita, among major countries. According to this criterion, France is ranked right after Germany. More than deficit reduction, resulting from the energy savings due to the lower year end oil prices and especially the mild climate, the rebound in exports deserves our attention because its causes deserve more consideration.

What is striking in the annual report drawn up by the Customs administration is primarily the strong heterogeneity in performance depending on the branches. One notices spectacular success in aeronautics, of course, but also strong positions in chemistry and cosmetics, in pharmaceuticals and automotive equipment, despite a slight decline last year, and in the food industry. But one notices also structural weakness in mechanics, electronics, in the entire timber industry, including furniture, and in textiles and clothing. This shows that the cause of our deficit is not global, that it is not due to a general lack of competitiveness, but merely reflects the success or weaknesses of corporate strategies in the area where they operate. Added to this is the clumsy intervention or non-intervention from the state. Two examples, taken from sectors that have suffered the major losses illustrate these failures.

The deficit in refined products increased by nearly 10 billion euros in seven years. The reason is simple: the State has encouraged diesel by taxation and by the calculation of bonuses awarded in the wake of the Grenelle de l’Environment, and therefore has directed the request to this fuel and upset the balance of our oil refining industry, designed to produce gasoline.
As a result, four refineries have closed since it is economically absurd to import crude oil for re-export, on a larger scale, in the form of refined products. But we import diesel whose demand has been stimulated by the State at the expense of public health, as we are progressively realizing.

The second case study is the automotive industry whose balance has become, in ten years, heavily in deficit. Renault is primarily responsible, as the State is still its major shareholder. Following the acquisition of Dacia and its alliance with Nissan, the national manufacturer, formerly leader in the European market, has massively shifted its assembly plants and at the same time, has opened the door of the French market, through its network, to the Japanese group. Nissan was quick to invest in its plant in Sunderland, England, to supply the European market, and consequently France, competing thereby with its "partner".

With the same labour costs, equipment manufacturers, including Michelin and Valeo, are flourishing and have a positive balance. The manufacturers themselves are in trouble and dug our deficit, and the State, in the case of Renault, is indifferent to it. Hopefully it will draw the consequences for PSA for which he became a shareholder. The dominant idea according to which our deficit has its origin in a lack of "competitiveness", because of its excessive labour costs does not pass the test of a detailed analysis of our foreign trade.

The review of our performance by country is equally revealing. In this domain, our weaknesses would be linked to the euro. The figures just published by the Customs administration do not confirm this interpretation.

Apart from energy products, the majority of the deficit comes from the euro zone! And with two leading countries, Germany, which is not surprising and, surprise, Italy! It is even the country with which the degradation was most sustained in recent years. And what is the country with which we experience the largest surplus? The UK that adopted a weak currency strategy after the pound sterling dropped by 15% in 2008. This has not helped reduce the UK trade deficit with France, on the contrary. We will see in the future if its slow rise in the wake of the dollar has consequences on trade between our two countries.

Country data must also, in some cases, be taken with caution. There is the "transit" effect: when a product is shipped via Antwerp or Rotterdam, from Asia or America, it enters the imports from Belgium or the Netherlands, which explains a good part of the deficit with both countries. And there was also the effect of "tax optimization". The big American and Japanese groups got used to implement factories and to locate their margins in Ireland in order to benefit from tax accommodative, through transfer pricing. This creates an artificial deficit with Ireland and even reduces the deficit with countries outside the euro zone, from which are the companies engaging in such practices.

Even if we adjust these two effects that overestimate the level of imports and consequently our deficit with the countries of the euro zone, country data and developments in recent years show that there is no indisputable correlation between the development of trade balances of France with its partners and their respective currencies. The only thing that is certain is that the weakening of the euro will result mechanically by a rise in raw material imports, the foremost of which is oil. France and the countries of the euro zone will therefore benefit less than their competitors, which are outside of the euro zone, from the recent drop in oil prices.

The dominant idea today is that the combined effect of the reduction of labour costs and a weaker euro will restore the "competitiveness" of our companies. The data that have just been published on our external trade has confirmed neither the first option nor the second hypothesis but has clearly showed that our positions have improved in some areas. In a competition, which account for the final result, the number of champions matters more than any supportive help coming from the outside. The figures of this end of year show, but this remains to be confirmed, that our champions are regaining ground.