When the Minister of Employment, François Rebsamen, acknowledges the government's failure to reverse unemployment trends, he makes an obvious remark. But should we therefore predict that the situation will not improve until the second half of 2015, that is to say in a year from now? One can easily understand his personal concern and his communication plan. His comments have not gone unnoticed. At least he will not be blamed for being mistaken as the President currently is. And if, contrary to his statements, unemployment rate decreases, everyone will forget what he said and he will take advantage of it. The real question is: why does Rebsamen think that the rise in unemployment will not be curbed? If he does not believe in the policy that is implemented, he should say so and go join those in the left party who are of the same opinion. But it is not the case. He is even one of the main supporters of the President.

He probably believes that the policy will take longer than expected to show results, but that they will meet the deadlines he set. And this is where he is wrong. Because there is a theory, in economics that - unlike most of those peremptorily mentioned by the experts - is regularly validated by the facts: that is the theory of verified expectations. If everyone behaves as if a disaster is about to happen, it happens. This applies to banks. If you think that a bank will go bankrupt, there is a rush at the counters to withdraw the funds and the bank goes indeed bankrupt. And if everyone thinks that unemployment will increase, including the one in charge to fight against this scourge, it increases. The main cause of rising unemployment is precisely the fear that it increases. And if at the highest level of the State, we are confident that unemployment will rise, everyone will be prepared for this possibility, which further worsens the situation and guarantees the realization of this dark prediction. Explanation.

Announcing a sustainable increase in unemployment affects the behaviour of economic agents. Households, even when they are not directly concerned, limit their consumption to the bare minimum, they postpone expenses that can wait, like buying a car for example, and they borrow only when they face a tough deadline provided they find a bank to lend them. Because they feel threatened. Naturally, the acquisition projects for housing, except if there is a sudden financial return, we think of a legacy, are also deferred. And those with a surplus of resources remain prudent and are quick to save them. The financial household savings rate last year reached a record level. Sluggish consumption and housing construction fall are not only due to the increase in the tax burden, to the stagnation of purchasing power or to the shaving off of benefits such as pensions freeze or family allowances modulation. It is first and foremost explained by people’s concern about their future - a worry that François Rebsamen has just aggravated without realizing all the effects of his statements. This concern is one of the first, if not the first, causes of economic stagnation, and stagnation, mechanically, further generates unemployment.

This reasoning is even more accurate when we apply it to companies. Why should you invest and recruit, even if the State generously provides some means through massive social and tax breaks, if customers are not waiting for you? But we brandish the theme of competitiveness and mention exports, which are sources of hope as our production deposit may revive economic growth. But two-thirds of our customers are in Europe, where the situation is no better. The return to growth in the countries that were hit the most by the crisis should not be misunderstood. They have not regained yet their 2008 level of activity. These countries will not provide French companies with the opportunities that are missing in France. And when finally the State cuts its spending to restore its financial credibility and partially conform to European commitments, all growth indicators are flashing red lights. So what should be done?

Rebalancing the efforts. Replying to Brussels, the government has finally recognized that the debt burden would be less important (several billions) than expected and announced in the provisional budget, which will not surprise our frequent readers. For months, and from the figures reported by Agence France Trésor, we know that these costs are overestimated and that a kind of pool was set up to compensate for any slippage of operating expenses. It will be used to satisfy Brussels and no extra effort will be asked to households, which is positive in the current context.

But we should make a step further in rebalancing so that it can impact on the purchasing power. The tax benefits granted to companies without compensation must be better targeted and part of them must be redistributed to households in the form of benefits and tax cuts. This could be done at the end of the year as part of the Amending Finance Act 2014. It will be the right moment to give a strong signal for growth in order to break the recession expectations, and to finally trigger a change in behaviours so that the vicious cycle of unemployment could be broken in 2015. Expectations will reverse and the consecutive decline in unemployment, however small it may be, will produce a "virtuous circle" where growth mechanically generate a new and this time sustainable decrease in unemployment, belying the dire predictions of the Minister of Employment. But who would complain?