2016 will be, in Europe, a critical year but not for the reasons we think. A Brexit is unlikely. To gamble with the idea in a poll or at the Commons, in order to show his dissatisfaction is one thing, to risk to destabilize the economy of his country is a different thing. The City relies on the implantation of international banks and a lot of non European enterprises have chosen England as an entry point to Europe. Its deficit financing depends on foreign investors. Electors begin to be aware of these realities. Prime Minister Cameron knows it. But, in ...

Continue reading

2015 hasn’t been a year as any. Oil, Yuan, Fed, Europe and France have known majors turning points. Some of them will generate structural evolutions which will affect the world economy at least for its next ten years.

Oil, first. 2015 has brought the confirmation that price fall observed at the end of 2014 was not only the result of geostrategic choices, Gulf States, with Sunnite predominance, willing to weaken Shiite Iran and the United States trying to cut Russian resources after Ukrainian crisis. OPEC decision to maintain the level of its production, confirmed a year later, was the ...

Continue reading

Les tragiques évènements intervenus à Paris durant le mois de novembre ont fait passer les questions économiques au second plan en Europe. Pourtant, pendant ce temps-là, se déroule l’une des plus importantes opérations financières de tous les temps, venant juste derrière les folies de la bulle des télécoms d’il y a quinze ans, AOL Time-Warner et Hutchison-Mannesmann entre autres. La transaction dépassera 160 milliards de dollars. Mais ce qui en fait l’originalité, c’est moins sa taille que sa motivation exclusivement fiscale. En fusionnant avec Allergan, installé en Irlande et ...

Continue reading