The downward revisions to French growth in 2026 by INSEE (0.7%) and the Banque de France (0.5%) are justified by the deterioration in the international environment since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. The rise in oil prices has weighed on household purchasing power and corporate margins. Uncertainties about the world economy have prompted economic agents to be more cautious and therefore to reduce spending and recruitment. The lull after the conclusion of a program of talks between the United States and Iran has allowed oil prices to fall but has not removed concerns.
These ...