The climate warming is attributable to the emissions of greenhouse gas which are caused by human activities, in the first position of which are the production and the utilization of energy. It is, which is rarely mentioned, a global phenomenon. It is the action of all the States which is important and there is no relation between the behavior of a country and the damages it could suffer on its territory. To the opposite, its action will profit to everybody in proportion with the share it occupies in the whole emissions. In that way, if France reaches its carbon neutrality objectives, it will be spared from the meteorologic crisis like drought and the increase of the oceans level only if the other countries bring their contribution. A coordination of the actions in the world is so important.

The 2011-2021 decade has been marked by a significant slowing of the volumes of emissions in the energy sector. But this is the result of very different evolutions between the countries. The developed ones have registered a significant reduction, the United States by 600 million tons, Europe 800 million and Japan 150 million. This fall results from the reduction of the coal consumption to the profit of natural gas, especially in the U.S., and from the development of renewables, solar panels and windfarms, mainly in Europe. But the fossil fuels production has increased and the efforts to obtain energy savings in these countries have not yet delivered significant results.

The developing countries have, them, continued to increase their emissions, the Middle East by 400 million tons, India by 800 million and China by 1,7 billion. These figures show what is at stake and the responsibilities of everyone but to be fair, it must be reminded that it is the stock inside the atmosphere of the greenhouse gas which is in question and not only the new emissions. It is so difficult to make the trial of the developing countries when that stock results, by a very large share, from the emissions produced during decades by the developed countries.

These trends have been turned off by the energy crisis following the sanctions adopted by the Western countries against Moscow. They occurred during an economic rebound period with the end, except in China, of the lockdowns and of travel restrictions which had contributed in 2020 and in 2021 to the reduction of the emissions. In Europe, it must, urgently, find alternatives to the Russian natural gas imports. To protect the safety of the power production has become the priority to the detriment of the reduction of the emissions. That situation has been made worse by the unavailability of an important share of the French nuclear power plants. They had allowed to the country to exporting between 40 and 60 TWh during the previous years.

Windfarms and solar panels always operate at the maximum of their capacities, according to wind and solar availability. It has been so necessary to find other sources, mainly fossil fuels, with in first position natural gas. But that one must only be transported by pipe-line or by boat after having been liquefied. Pipe-lines connecting European Union and the United Kingdom which were not affected by the sanctions being saturated, most of the natural gas came after having been liquefied. The United States and the Gulf countries had, at their disposal available capacities and have increased their production and their exports toward Europe. Russia has then reoriented a part of its exports toward China and in a smaller extent toward India.

Worried about the risks of penury during the winter, the States have asked the power producers, as soon as during the 2022 summer, to anticipate their purchases to have at their disposal enough inventories. It has resulted an unprecedent increase of natural gas prices which, due to European regulation regarding electricity prices, has generated huge increases for both household and enterprises. The States, already affected by the consequences of the pandemic, have been obliged to institute tariffs shields which have again increased the public deficits

But the recourse to other natural gas suppliers has not been enough and the power producers, especially in Germany and in Poland, has had to have recourse to their coal power plants whose production has increased, which has caused a strong rise of the CO2 emissions, because these plants are much more polluting than these using natural gas. France has even been obliged to reopen a power unit whose definitive closure had been announced. Tensions on the natural gas market have also pushed China to increase the production of its coal power plants because European countries had made the prices of the gas coming from the Gulf increasing and further transportation capacities from Russia were limited.

We must take at least two lessons from these events regarding energy transition. The first one is that no State, whatever are the short term consequences on environment, can renounce to power as to gasoline supply safety. They are essential goods both for household and for enterprises. The calls in favor of sobriety and of a modification of the behaviors can soften the tensions but no government will take the risk of imposing massive blackouts if it can, thanks to its power plants even if they are polluting, avoid it. In the same way, it will not hesitate to proceed to requisitions to guarantee the gasoline distribution. The new agreement between Saudi Arabia and China to build and to supply two new refineries also show that the stoppage of the investments in favor of fossil fuels is not for tomorrow.

The second lesson, it is that the renewables cannot be the answer to that kind of crisis. Germany has just brought the demonstration of it. The country, with the closure of its nuclear power plants, thought that its windfarms could satisfy the country needs. The recent events have brought the proof that it was not at all possible. At a time when it is forecasted in Europe and in the major economies, that electricity consumption will increase in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, notably regarding transportation of goods and persons, it is necessary to be conscious that this makes sense only if the electricity is itself de-carboned. We do not contribute to the fight against climate warming through recharging batteries, made in China, of your own vehicle with power produced by coal plants.

To solve these contradictions, the energy mix of the countries must be fitted with intermittent renewables and with a significant share of non-intermittent sources which guarantee supply safety. Among these ones, nuclear production has a strategic role to play and we don’t have to be surprised if numerous countries, surmounting the hostility of local political forces, have proceeded to a turnaround in this domain. The European institutions unwillingness under the pressure of States whose weight is by large minority are incomprehensible and so must be overcome.

Europe assigned to itself ambitious objectives regarding the reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions. There is no better way to clear up the contradictions between the energy safety and the energy transition than to launch a new development phase of the nuclear energy and to close coal power plants.