The impressive score of Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazilian presidential election has aroused attention on the country from all around the world. The populist authoritarianism with its racist and homophobic whiffs and the liberalism which inspires the economic program of the candidate show that this one is full of contradictions. Commentators have noticed some similarities with Donald Trump election. They even have made a comparison with the divisions and the crisis which is affecting Europe. Yet, that analysis is superficial. Brazil political and economic situation is quite different. If we set aside some short periods of time which have created an exaggerated euphoria, inside and outside the country, this country has not yet found its economic development model which could allow it to meet the place it deserves in the world economy.

Here is a huge country which has at its disposal mineral resources and since recently considerable oil reserves, and an agricultural production which makes it a world leader. Its cultural influence arouses admiration but it cannot get a stable, democratic and balanced political regime. Brazil, it is brilliant writers, like Jorge Amado or Paulo Coelho, poets and composers whose works are known worldwide like Carlos Jobim or Vinicius de Moraes, architects, like Oscar Niemeyer or scientists like the mathematician Artur Avila, born in Rio and who has made his carrier in France before being honored by the Fields medal. But Brazil, it is also military putsches, repeated financial crisis and today violence in big cities almost without equivalent in the world.

Some years ago, it was thought that the country did break with its past and had found a strategy consistent with its capacities. It even pretended to reach the fifth place in the world economy, overtaking France and the U.K. But it was the consequence of a currency effect. Its one, the real, was artificially overvalued when European ones were affected by the crisis of the euro. In 2010, the value of one euro was 2.5 reals. Since that period, the Brazilian currency slumped and despite Bolsonaro score, which has been hailed by financial markets, one euro is still worth 4.50 reals, after a bottom of 4.80 before the election. The country is getting out very slowly of the deep recession which has affected it in 2015 and 2016 when the world economy was rebounding, in fact unequally with Europe lagging behind. Comparison with China and even India which are its companions in the “BRICS” is cruel.

The first mistake made by Brazil, and it was a long time ago, was Brasilia. Everybody, at that dictatorship time, went into ecstasies in front of the futuristic buildings designed by Niemeyer and that very popular idea in France, to move activities in favor of regional development. Half a century later, only administrations and embassies are located there. Companies did not follow. They stayed in the southeast of the country between Porto Alegre and Rio, with Sao Paulo megalopolis in the middle. Brazil capital is at the center of an economic desert. The creation of Brasilia had another awkward consequence. It increased year after year the split between the political world and the Brazilian people. The rejection of the political class is not without link with its geographical remoteness and with the fact that the country leaders are living between themselves, far from the presence and the looks of their fellow citizens. That has aggravated the feeling that this group of men and women, in charge of the country, was getting on to take advantage of their situation, protected by the distance and the isolation given by the location of the capital. The populist reaction is today its consequence.

The second mistake has been the protectionist choice. Even if a double of the European Union has been instituted with the neighboring countries, the Mercosur, the closing of the borders has not permitted the emergence of companies, except regarding the production of natural resources, which could have reached a sufficient size to make a name for themselves on the world market. The access was closed due to reciprocity rules. Brazilian industrial activity is today mainly done by the subsidiaries of European, American and Japanese companies implanted in the country. They are yet affected by the shortage of highly qualified workforce because the country education system is deficient. Competition between themselves is not tough enough to improve the quality of the products and to contain prices rise.

Brazil has not been able to take advantage of its raw materials to keep the added value on its territory and of the exceptional opportunities offered by its geography with the beauty and the variety of the sites which have been granted by the nature. The discovery of the huge “pre-salt” oilfields has made the country to believe that “God has become Brazilian”. But instead of generating wealth for the whole population, that has provoked through the deals concluded with some enterprises in charge of puting in activity these oilfields, a massive corruption. That has finished discrediting the traditional political class, despite the undisputable efforts made by the former president Lula to fight against poverty through the creation of a system of benefits.

The economic instability has not permitted to guarantee the realization of indispensable transport infrastructures to the development of tourism and make Brazil a privileged destination. The huge Nordeste territories have, along the sea, sites which are not accessible. Dozens of millions of Europeans who go every winter in the Caribbean or in Southeast Asia would have found in this region nearer vacation sites with a reduced jetlag. Due to the lack of airports and roads, these provinces are not taking profit from the jobs which would have been created. It is the same with the marvelous historical sites, inherited from the Portuguese colonization, like Ouro Preto or Paraty , which lack hotel capacities. Some years the tourist balance of the country has even been in deficit.   

Brazil motto, adopted in 1889 when Republic was created, was inspired by the thought of the French philosopher Auguste Comte. It is inscribed on the Brazilian flag: “Ordem e progresso”, the order and the progress. The failure of the previous governments, even if Lula has tried to fight against inequalities, was to have not be able to bring in a redistribution of the wealth generated by growth. Progress was there but it was not shared. It has created disorder and the deep fractures in the people. The Brazil of the favellas is not the Brazil of Copacabana, of the Sao Paulo skylines or of the large desert avenues of Brasilia.

Next leaders will succeed only if they are lucid about the strengths and the weaknesses of their country and if they break with a bureaucratic and protectionist culture in total contradiction with their liberal message. In encouraging companies to take advantage of the creative genius of their employees, in supporting their international development and in the same time in being aware of wealth redistribution, they can infirm the famous saying: “Brazil is a country for the future and it will stay forever”.