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AB 2000 studies

Alain Boublil Blog

 

The come-back of the State as a strategist

It is not because Marine Le Pen, in her campaign, proclaims that the State must regains its role in the economy that the issue must be a taboo. It would be a height in Colbert country where, just after the war, massive nationalizations have been decided to bring about the economy in giving to it modern public services, in the continuation of what happened in 1936 or where the same thing was decided in 1982 to make possible the restructuration and the modernization of several industrial companies which were near bankruptcy. France shouldn’t have any hang-up in that matter. United Sates and England did not hesitate to intervene in the capital of banks and industrial groups during the 2007-2008 financial crisis when they were about to fall into default. Regarding Germany, these practices are as resolute when, for instance, in Brussels, the issue is to prevent against any measure creating damages to the coal industry or to protect the car industry against any restrictive regulations.

The today issue is not a new one: the purpose is to guarantee the future of one of the French industrial jewels, the Saint-Nazaire shipyard. A take-over by its rival and neighbor, the Italian Fincantieri, constitutes a threat. Who could believe during just a second that the day when this highly cyclical market on which these two shipbuilders are competing, will turn down, that the Italian shipyard wouldn’t privilege its own business, which would put in danger Saint-Nazaire, its employees and its suppliers, in an irreversible way? This area is one of the very few ones among France territories which enjoys an industrial renaissance. The shipyard, as aeronautic activities nearby, is playing there an essential role. Its history is worth to be related. That site, where the liner “France” was built at the end of the Fifties, was going through a crisis, thirty years later, as the whole shipbuilding sector, under the pressure of Japanese and Korean competitors. Against the position of many experts, including ministry of finances, the State, in 1984, made possible, thanks to the guarantee of COFACE, the French Exim Bank, the building and the export of a new cruise liner, the Sovereign of the Seas by “Chantiers de l’Atlantique”. That decision was at the origin of the redeployment of the shipyard with an indisputable success. Some months ago, the media greeted the launch of its successor, the Harmony of the Seas, qualified with enthusiasm, as the biggest cruise liner of the world. It is the protection of that asset which is at stake today when the restructuration of “Chantiers de l’Atlantique” shareholding is discussed and the State must play its role without hesitation.

When its parent company, Alstom, was in trouble, in 2014, Nicolas Sarkozy during his short presence at Bercy, did not hesitate to decide that the State had to become a big enough shareholder to reassure the banks and to permit the company to rebound. Unfortunately, the State disengaged itself too shortly and did not assume its responsibilities when Alstom management decided to sale the whole energy business to General Electric, including a highly strategic activity, the maintenance of the conventional part of our nuclear power plants. It was not its first mistake and the disappearance of several industrial jewels like Pechiney or Alcatel could have been avoided. But it is not because the State did not always play its role in the past that its right to accomplish it today must be refused, especially when, not so long ago and in a climate of skepticism, it has been able to take, regarding Peugeot, the right and essential decisions which, unanimously, are considered as being at the origin of its current rebound. And it would be a height to renounce to it when, in England, Theresa May has announced she had decided to launch, in her country, an industrial policy and when China, for instance, supports the international development of its companies.

But the area where the State could act as a strategist should not be limited to become a shareholder of industrial companies when it is needed. Social relations must constitute a new and essential field of intervention. Instead of trying to regulate everything due to the incapacity of professional organizations and unions to reach mutually beneficial agreements, the State should involved itself in an action to help these organizations to work together and to find between themselves compromises and solutions. It is what makes Germany strength. Longtime ago, there was a location where this work was done, when positions were brought together and from which, frequently, were emerging agreements. That place was the Planning Agency. The next president should adopt, as an objective, to create the conditions where a real social dialogue is instituted in order to adapt the tumultuous relations between the different stakeholders to the new world which is taking shape. France doesn’t need a new labor law but to create the conditions to do better without.

Another strategic issue is the management of public debt. The abuse of alarmist messages must stop. No, the public debt doesn’t constitute a burden for the next generation because it will inherit of the money needed to reimburse it. The ratio between the public debt and the financial assets accumulated by households is stable for the last 20 years. This debt is not a threat, except if France adopts the project to exit from the euro. It is true that this threat is not enough put forward by those who report about the campaign for the presidential election. That project would immediately create a doubt about France ability to issue bonds on the market and could generate a risk of a default. On the opposite, a smart issuance strategy which would consist in taking a maximum profit from the low interest rates being asked by the ECB, should be, at last, followed. The stabilization of the public expenditures level for the last three years, is, by large, the consequence of the reduction of the cost of the public debt. It could be possible to go further in definitely renouncing to issue bonds carrying higher interest rates than market ones. It is noticed that, since the beginning of the year, there is a clear inflexion in that direction, which will be verified in April, according to the program Agence France Trésor has released. That strategy must be confirmed in the future and the State must profit from these exceptional financing conditions to launch or to support public investments programs. As long as France is in the European Union and has the euro as a currency, the fact that foreign investors massively subscribe to these issues is a sign of strength and of confidence in our country. That does not represent a particular risk because, in the opposite way, French investors, notably through annuity contracts in euro, subscribe also to European issues.

Industrial strategy, without of course interfering with management tasks, social strategy to support the improvement of labor relations in enterprises, financial strategy at last, to take advantage from a financial environment, so are the opportunities for the new “Strategist-State”. It could replace, for the profit of all of us, the old “Bureaucratic State”.