Energy transitions issues have taken hold of the French presidential campaign. Some, like Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Benoît Hamon are reducing it to the stigmatization of nuclear energy, they propose to abandon through the closing of power units in safe technical condition. Others, like Emmanuel Macron or François Fillon, propose a diversification of the electricity mix but are hostile to shale gas exploration. All of them think energy saving investments are the panacea to reduce unemployment, but without defining convincing financial solutions, due to the diversity of the situations.
France is not an isolated case. The American presidential campaign has been also the occasion of passionate debates on these issues between the two parties. Among the major economies, it is the country which has the highest per capita ratio for CO2 emissions. Its decisions have consequences for the whole planet. Donald Trump declared himself openly as a “climate-skeptic” but in the same time he supports shale gas extraction. This low-cost source of energy has permitted to reduce the share of coal in the power production mix and a massive reduction of CO2 emissions. That permitted, in 2015, for the first time since a long period, to stabilize them at the global level. Donald Trump hostility, regarding the results of the COP 21, has no great importance because this agreement carries no restricting obligations, which permitted Barrack Obama to bypass a Congress vote. If the American president decided to go back, that would essentially have a symbolic impact. The key variable, regarding the pursuit of the country in the good direction, is the relative price between coal and natural gas. On this issue, the American position is still on the same trend than in the past.
At the world level, the biggest issuer of greenhouse gas is China. Its policy is, for this reason, essential. To assess it, it must be noticed that pollution is both a global phenomenon (greenhouse gas contribute to the warming of the planet) and local, through, for instance, harmful particles released in the atmosphere. To forget it can lead to absurd policies. France encouraged the utilization of diesel in 2008 which emitted less CO2 than gasoline. At the planet level that was insignificant. But, at the local level, emitted particles were dangerous for the health of the population. China is confronted with both issues. In many cities, air has become irrespirable and the population, docile toward the regime until now, could find there a justified motive of revolt. So, the Chinese government has adopted, as early as 2013, a very ambitious energy transition policy, which has been confirmed and detailed in the 13rd Plan which runs from 2016 until 2020 and which is consistent with its support to the Paris Agreement.
The first priority is the stabilization then the reduction of coal consumption. It is the answer to both the climate urgency and local demands. If the air in some Chinese cities has become irrespirable, it is because they are surrounded by coal power plants. The swift from coal to natural gas will permit to reduce pollution. The fall of CO2 emissions will be less spectacular than in the Unites States because China does not have enough natural gas resources, infrastructures and distribution networks. Natural gas consumption, in the country rose from 50 billion cubic meters in 2005 to near 200 billion in 2015 and should reach 250 billion in 2018, when huge supply contracts signed with Russia come into application. They cover LNG imports from Yamal field, located in Baltic Sea and natural gas coming through the pipeline being built across Siberia to end in the Northern provinces of the country. As a consequence, hundreds of small coal mines will be closed and production will start its decline. At the end of the 13rd Plan, Beijing is forecasting that natural gas share will reach 10% of the energy consumption. It was only 3% in 2010.
The second part of the energy transition policy is the acceleration of the nuclear program. It has been slowed down after the Fukushima accident but it was restarted in 2014. Power capacities in operation in 2020 will reach 58 GWe, i.e. a little under 62 GWe, the maximum France has decided by a law. Nuclear energy should offer 6% of power production but, in the mid-term, the target is above 15%. China has multiplied international partnerships, first with France, its historical associate, but also with Westinghouse. Its new model, AP1000, is under construction in China and also in the United States and it is going through the same problems than the EPR, the French model. In Georgia and in South Carolina, the four units, equivalent to two and half EPR, are going through delays of several years and total cost overruns of more than 12 billion dollars. So problems occurred at Flamanville should be put into perspective. When you have not built a power plant during 15 years and, atop of that, if you decide to launch a new model, it has a cost. Toshiba, Westinghouse shareholder, is not in a better situation than Areva but that didn’t dissuade China to develop its own model of reactor, Hualong 1 which is under construction at Fuqing, in the Fujian province. China General Nuclear even asked for the certification of the reactor to the British safety authorities, because it projects to build two units in the country, at Bradwell, in cooperation with EDF. China energy policy is not devoid of interest for industrial considerations.
It is also true for renewable. China has accelerated its investments: in 2016, for wind turbines,19 GWe has been put in operation and 34 GWe for solar panels. But these numbers must not be misunderstood: due to intermittence, wind turbines represented only 4% of the power production, whose 0,7% were lost due to the incapacity of the grid to receive them, and only 1% for solar energy. In 2020, non-fossils sources would represent 15% of the production. The Chinese model for energy transition is based on the diversification of the power sources with one priority: the reduction of coal production and consumption, progressively replaced by natural gas, nuclear and renewable. But there are no figures set as objectives which are unachievable due to the current available technical information. Dream and ideology have no place there. As the economic model is also changing, with a reduction of heavy industries share in favor of services, China is dissociating growth and energy consumption. It is the pragmatic combination of all these elements which permits to satisfy its environment objectives in stopping unbearable urban pollutions and in contributing effectively, at the world level, to the fight against climate change.
Chinese people are frequently accused to be copiers. In that circumstance, our political leaders would be well inspired to visit this country to get rid of their ideological presuppositions, to find ideas and to elaborate the successful energy transition policy that France needs.