According to the latest “monthly report” published by INSEE, the rate growth of French economy should be 0.3% per quarter, during the first semester 2015.

This news has been hailed, for once, by the business press that sees here the beginning of an upturn and by the French government that justifies thereby the forecast sent to Brussels in order to defend its policy and the gradual return of France’s public deficit below 3%. However, this analysis of the situation is not convincing. First, this figure relies on tiny changes, a few thousandths of GDP. No statistical system is able to make such accurate estimates during the year. But the "fetishism of the decimal” pleases everyone: it provides food for comment and it can sometimes give a flattering picture of a situation, even if it does not match an undeniable reality.

Moreover, the reasoning behind the return to a level of quarterly growth of 0.3% contradicts the government's reasoning that inspires its economic policy, namely the improvement of the financial situation of companies will allow them to "restore their competitiveness," invest and create jobs, restoring consumer’s confidence and rekindling domestic demand. According to INSEE, and despite a favourable international environment made of massive drop in oil prices and some raw materials, foreign trade contribution to growth will be almost equal to zero in the first half of 2015. The decline of public and private investment will continue, despite the fact that interest rates remain at historically low levels. As for the return of confidence among households that would allow the revival of consumption, it is deferred since unemployment will continue its inexorable progression (10.6% at the end of H1 2015 against 10.4% in Q3 2014), due to the continued decline of the commercial sector jobs. The high number of public contracts is slowing down the rise of unemployment. This does not mean a progressive return to healthy growth dynamics of the productive system.

This fact is reflected in the global accounts: the only position that continues to rise, and much faster than investment and consumption of private agents, is the one corresponding to government expenditures (+ 0.4% per quarter), even though priority was put on reducing their need. This is one more contradiction. As for household consumption, its evolution is mainly the result of fluctuations in heating costs, after an unusually mild autumn. 

The analysis of INSEE lacks two elements: the real impact of the historically low interest rates and the impact of the drop in oil prices. How can one explain that in such a favourable environment, investment would continue to decrease until summer 2015, defying all logic? Above all, how can one justify that the dramatic reduction of energy bills will have no impact on the behaviour of economic agents - while in the past (1986, 1998 and 2009) it has always been synonymous with high growth recovery? The answer may lie in the fact that the economic policy adopted by the government has not incorporated this radical change of context. France would not benefit from this change as much as it could.