Archives September 2026

The frequently critical comments about the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy do not help to understand the action of its leaders and the direction in which the country is heading. A range of between 4.5 and 5% had been chosen for GDP growth in 2026. The figures for the 1st half of the year placed it at the bottom of this range and the latest forecasts for the 3rd quarter estimate it to be even lower. While business and public sector investment remains dynamic, household consumption is growing little and the main driver of the Chinese ...

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The announcement of the downward revision of the French growth forecast for 2026 by the Ministry of Finance, reduced to 0.4% from 0.7% initially estimated, is not a surprise. The Bank of France had already reduced its to 0.6% in August. But the very negative comments that accompanied it are excessive and the European comparisons unwelcome. In an increasingly difficult international context, including a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices and a summer marked by a real climate catastrophe, France will escape recession. Germany, after being plunged into it for two years, is barely out ...

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Political news in France is focused on the preparation of the 2027 budget, in the run-up to the next presidential election and in a context where the general rise in interest rates is affecting public finances already degraded by heavy debt. The stabilization of the deficit at around 5% of GDP in 2026 is not a given due to an unstable international environment that weighs on growth and new spending required by the consequences of the weather events that occurred this summer. 

If we put aside the project of cancelling part of the debt that would make France look like ...

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