François Fillon massive success is good news for François Hollande for two reasons. First, it confirms that poll opinions have no predictive value. These institutes, and all those who, all along their editorials, comment them are the real losers of this primary election of the right and the center. At any time during the week which preceded the first round has been imagined that the one who finally won, was even going to participate to the second round; To keep the suspense on, and then the interest of the public and of their clients, the institutes, following their habit did indicate that “the gap was narrowing” with Nicolas Sarkozy, who, finally finished in the third position. But nobody imagined that François Fillon could finish in the first position, and even less that he would have such a lead against Alain Juppé. It is, by itself, good news for François Hollande because it is on the basis of the results of that kind of poll opinions that it is predicted for him a heavy defeat if he runs. Since the result of this primary election, the argument has lost most of its value and it is easy to imagine what he would answer if somebody tried to convince him on using it.
The second good news is related to François Fillon program. It contains all what is needed to appall the traditional electorate of the left, and in particular salaried both from the public and the private sectors. It is not surprising to observe that his success is mainly due to the vote of comfortably off retired persons. They have nothing to be afraid of because they already got their pension rights and they are not upset, after having got the right to retire at 60 years old, to force their younger brothers or sisters to work some more years, when they have a job. In the opposite, they will have to apply to the different unemployment or pre-retired benefits. François Fillon proposals can rally the left and also contribute, at least, to silent its divisions. If not, no victory or even a qualification for the second round of the presidential election is possible; François Hollande would be, in that case, in a better position to gather together his side, with, of course, the exception of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The support, for the second round, of the leftist leader, in case of a successful union of the left, would be sure. Who, from the left, can look at the proposals of the new candidate from the right, without fighting them?
On the strict economic ground, François Fillon thinks that the excessive burden of the state is the main reason of the difficulties of our enterprises and a too generous social security system the cause of unemployment, since the system would not encourage people to accept jobs. At last, he holds up the threat of France excessive indebtedness. It is not new. Just after having been appointed as Prime minister, during 2007 summer, he declared he was “at the head of a bankrupt state”. When he arrived at Matignon, French public debt was then 1263 billon euro. Five years later, when he left, debt had increased by 607 billion euro. He did nothing to cope with a situation he considered as catastrophic, but his government had no problem to finance it. There are two possibilities. The first one is that François Fillon uses this rhetoric to scare and to get supports, but he definitely knows that there is no basis for that. The second possibility is that he ignores how financial markets operate. Based on his last declarations on the consequences of possible interest rate rises, we should choose the second hypothesis. First, the current interest rate rise is very modest and France, for short-term borrowing still get negative rates. Regarding mid and long term bonds, interest rate is near zero for maturities until six years and is laboriously above 0.7% for longer maturities. A rise in long term interest rates, at around 2.5% for instance, would not have a significant impact on the cost of the debt before at least five years. We will continue to amortize past bonds carrying much higher rates. The reduction of the cost of public debt will go on, contrary to what François Fillon is maintaining.
His political project relies on the same mistake as the one which caused François Hollande setback. To imagine that new financial transfers in favor of enterprises financed by an increased fiscal pressure on households will restore growth and contain unemployment is absurd. Without the support of internal demand, who is going to invest, who is going to hire? Nobody. Enterprises which would have increased their margins will use it to reduce their debt, to remunerate their shareholders and their top managers or even to invest abroad. Regarding households, hurt by the reduction of purchasing power, they will be confronted with an increase of their precariousness with the projects regarding workers rights, pensions and they will face risks for their healthcare benefits. Who could imagine that this will encourage them to consume more or to invest in their home?
Coming from a Gaullist or from somebody who claims he belongs to this political family, public services stigmatization in incomprehensible. To de-bureaucratize France in reducing the burden ministers and numerous public organisms impose on economic activity or to reduce the “territorial milfoil” is, of course, highly desirable. But, if we have understood the message of the candidate from the right and the center, his priority is to reduce the number of civil servants. Most numerous public services, education, justice, police, army or hospitals will pay the price of this ideological choice. Such proposals are capable to arouse the rejection of a large part of the population. Yet, they will need to find a political offer able to respond to their worries. If the left understand that time is over for ideological quarrels, between “social-liberalism”, the “old left” or the “governing left”, which, in realty are only the reflect of personal ambitions, it can offer this answer to all those who will unavoidably question the consequences, for themselves or their own situation of a vote in favor of the right. François Hollande must accept to make concessions to the “rebels” inside his own party and recognize he made some mistakes and his decisions were not as judicious as he thought. He must also guarantee he will defend, in the future, freedom of undertaking and pursue a dynamic policy in favor of investment and jobs creation. Then, he could hope to lead and win a battle against the right.
The comeback, in the heart of the political debate, of a real left-right confrontation about social progress, wealth sharing and the quality of public services has another interest: it marginalizes Front national whose economic proposals are very poor. Until now, it had successfully hidden that in concentrating attention on the stigmatization of immigration and on the isolation of France inside Europe. It is the duty of the left to take this opportunity in building up an economic program which takes full responsibility for the past mistakes and which offers to our country another way that the one which is proposed by the right. It is its last chance.