The surprise created by Donald Trump election is as high as the uncertainties of his economic choices. It is not rare that the promises of a candidate during his campaign don’t give an exact view of what he will do, once elected. And us, in France, we are not well placed to give lessons on that matter. The situation is more complicated in the United States because the president needs to have the support of the Congress, for his economic policy, his public finance choices and social reforms. The new president in these matters will be in a much better position than his predecessor because the republican party, whose candidate he was, controls the majority of the Senate and of the House of Representatives. We could think that his job will be easier and the policy he intends to follow is simple to forecast. It is not the case since during his campaign he aroused very strong oppositions from the leaders of his party, and not only about society issues. His businessman carrier in real estate as his declarations may guarantee the adoption of fiscal measures favorable to companies and entrepreneurs. But their size will be determined by the Congress and it will have to take into account the public finance situation of the country, which still carries a heavy deficit.

Foreign trade policy will be, at the opposite, by far different from the protectionist and unilateral declarations of the candidate. To renegotiate past agreements or to conclude new ones, you need to be at least two. The tone used during the campaign, which nobody outside of the United States has forgotten, will not facilitate the job of the new president. His partners are warned and are on their guards. A majority of the big American companies is satisfied with the current situation for the good reason that it is in accordance with their interests. They will not mince their efforts to convince the White House and the Congress to defend their points. Relationship with China will provide a good test. If the U.S. carry a very important trade deficit with this country, it is both due to American companies, in the distribution sector notably, which import Chinese products and to the commercial aggressiveness of Chinese firms. We can bet on the fact that, except for one or two sensitive sectors, like the steel industry, nothing will substantially change. Japan is also anxious, and not only because of the adjournment of the approbation of the TPP until the transmission of the power to the new president. But Donald Trump staff members will explain to him it is difficult to create tensions in the same time with the two biggest subscribers and owners of U.S. Treasury bonds. He will understand. The treaty currently under discussion with Europe creates here a lot of critics. A “soft” deal will be easy to find in order to continue discussions. So, a disruption of the world trade is unlikely. Those who see in his election the first signal of a “de-globalization” era will be disappointed.

Ambitious declarations regarding the modernization of American infrastructures will be revised downward. It is a pity since the country needs it. You just have to take the train between Washington and New York to be convinced or to look at the bridges which connect Manhattan with the rest of the country. The presidential staff has moderated the enthusiasm generated by these very Keynesian words. They are already working on financial schemes assorted with tax benefits which will encourage private investors to launch projects. But the time needed for these tax benefits to be approved by Congress, for the projects to be selected and for all authorizations to be given to start the works, makes their inauguration unlikely during Donald Trump mandate. He will need a second one. Contrary to what financial markets have anticipated, this aspect of the new administration economic policy will not have, on the short term, significant consequences on U.S. growth.

Yet, there is an area where the elected president has been very clear and where he will have the full approval of his party: the energy policy. His support to coal miners has been a strong moment of the campaign. And they were not ungrateful since he won several swing States thanks to them, including Pennsylvania. He will definitely reward them and, at the difference of other issues, he will have the power to do it. Shale gas revolution had, during the last three years, a spectacular impact on environment. CO2 emissions by the U.S. have diminished, as in China in 2015, which has permitted to compensate rises observed in other areas like India or Europe (+1,4% in 2015).Natural gas production from shale deposits has made this source of energy competitive against coal for power, making possible a reversal in favor of natural gas power stations. Barack Obama wanted to go further, through the “Clean Air Act”, in imposing more severe norms for coal power stations, generating more closures, a new fall of coal demand and another wave of  redundancies among coal miners. Donald Trump will certainly abandon this policy and he will try, through tax benefits, if necessary, to protect coal production. At the same time, he said that he will reduce environmental constraints on shale oil and gas production. The coming decisions of the American administration, inspired by the new president, standing by the declarations of the candidate, will encourage an increase of the production. He will have the necessary political supports to put rapidly these measures in application. The objective is to give back to the country its energy independence and, on top of that, to allow it to increase its exports. These political choices will have two consequences.

Whatever OPEC decisions expected at the end of this month are, oil and natural gas production surplus will increase. A significant rebound of prices is very unlikely. Saudi Arabia strategy, relying on the prices fall to discourage American producers has failed because those producers successfully reduced their costs. Donald Trump election will definitely not reverse this trend and a failure of OPEC discussions would provoke automatically a new wave of price falls. The second consequence is related to climate discussions. United States and it is not the least paradox has played, until now, a very positive role in the stabilization of greenhouse emissions, at the planet level. It is highly likely that this period has come to an end. It is even not necessary to put in question the Paris Agreement because it has no restricting consequences for the States which have signed it. The Congress will not be consulted for the reason that it did not have to approve its ratification by the president. Regarding American public opinion, and it is also one of the reasons of Donald Trump success, its priority is that political leaders find solutions to everyone immediate concerns. There are little chances that there will be a real mobilization in favor of climate issues. COP 23 organizers which will be held next year can worry about.