The entire world, since the beginning of this November month, was turning its eyes at the United States and was wondering about the respective chances of both candidates. No election in the past had attracted such an impact, for two reasons: the result has been undecided until the end, with swings at every incident and the personality of one of the two candidates  fascinates some and scares the others. Nobody can predict the economic consequences of the election of Donald Trump. This uncertainty carries heavy consequences and will last until January when the transfer of power between Barack Obama and him occurs. But earth did not stop revolving and major events went unnoticed.

There was first the opening of COP 22. The Paris Agreement came into application and it is now the time to have tangible measures. In the opposite, it would have been a non-event. Good will declarations heard a year ago are just a step. What is important is to see how, in the field, they will have consequences. There are good news, one uncertainty and one disappointment. Good news came from two major emitters of greenhouse gas, China and India. The awareness of the disastrous consequences of an excessive use of coal in producing power in these two countries has lead to courageous decisions. China has put a ceiling on its coal production which has generated a rapid rise of world prices, making this source of energy less competitive and accelerating its decline. The effort in favor of nuclear power and renewable sources of energy in both countries is accelerating since they have large sunny and windy territories. India concluded two partnerships, one with Rosatom, the Russian producer of nuclear plants, which is building two reactors and the other with Japan, during Prime Minister Abe visit to New Delhi. Toshiba, Westinghouse shareholder, would take profit of it through the building of several AP 1000 reactors. The uncertainty concerns the United States. Hillary Clinton said she would go on with her predecessor policy but Donald Ttrump has said he was in favor of a canceling of the Paris Agreement. At the end, the disappointment is coming from Europe where Brussels is unable to convince Germany and Poland, which are protecting their coal industry, to adopt an efficient carbon price mechanism which would incite Europe to fulfill its commitments in a credible way.

During that time, China is following its growth path and the 3^rd quarter has been in line with expectations, with a 6.7% growth rate, the same than the two previous quarters. Industrial production will grow in 2016 by around 6% and energy consumption by GDP unit will decline by 5,2%, which means that the country is near to its objective to have an economy where growth is still high but which is based on energy saving. The reorientation in favor of services and consumption is consistent with this strategy. China is also becoming less dependent on its foreign trade. This is reflected in its trade balance figures with a fall of both imports and exports. But it does not prevent the country to pursue the developments of partnerships with foreign countries. With a total indifference from European Union, Chinese Prime minister went to Riga, in Latvia to attend a 16+1Summit between his country and 16 countries from central and eastern Europe, belonging or not to European Union. Infrastructure common projects, financed by Beijing, have been celebrated, as, for instance, the Budapest-Belgrade rail line and agreements to increase the exchanges of agricultural products China will need in the future have been discussed.

Bank of China currencies level has again fallen in October, due to Beijing will to slow the fall of the Yuan against the dollar and is also reflecting the mechanical consequences of the devaluation, against the dollar, of the other currencies it holds in its reserves.Communist party central Committee has strengthened the position of its current leaders. A new finance minister has been appointed to take over from Lou Jiwei who had been one of the architects of the international development of Chinese companies. His successor was, until now, in charge of tax policy and has probably been chosen to support the financial restructurings which are due to come in the public sector.

Again during that time, High Court of Justice, in London, has added more confusion in the Brexit scenario through its decision regarding the role of the Parliament in the opening of the article 50 procedure. The debate between the two possible exits doesn’t make a lot of sense since everything will depend of the support of every 27 other members of the Union. The idea consisting in London keeping all of its economic and financial current benefits for the City and the industrial plants located in the country, i.e. a soft Brexit, with the possibility to restrict the complete freedom of circulation of citizens from Union members, which was the major point in the June 23^rd referendum, is a pure illusion. Its former partners will not accept it. We can expect discussions to take years, during which new elections will occur. It would be unwise to think that the referendum result will not be questioned at that moment. The English serial drama is not about to reach its epilogue.

Finally, when everybody eyes where focused on America, French economy has brought new confirmations of the failure of the current government policy. Growth for 2016 will have to be once more revised down. Anyway, to use that term to talk about growth with such low figures is inappropriate. After a 0.1% fall during 2^nd quarter, the rebound has only reached 0.2% during the 3^rd quarter. Unemployment figures for September, after August disastrous ones, should not take people in. They result, after holydays, from the special training sessions for the young. These programs are welcomed but the economic interpretation of their consequences doesn’t make a lot of sense. If unemployment growth, for the last four years has effectively slowed, and even has been at the end of the period, stopped, the level reached is so high that there are no reasons to triumph. Important financial transfers in favor of businesses since 2013 have had no effect on investments and on the capacity of our economy to reverse its foreign exchanges deficit. Trade numbers which have just been published are as previous ones overwhelming. In two years, France has lost the whole benefits of the fall of oil and gas prices. This year deficit will be near 50 billion euro, when Germany has a surplus of 200 billion and Italy around 50. These two indicators, employment and foreign trade show how the economic strategy adopted during the last four years has failed to bring expected results. The end of the uncertainties caused by the result of the American elections might create a rebound of the world economy. Even in that case, the challenge for France is to be able to take advantage of it.