The publication of the first estimate of Chinese growth for 2014 has been greeted in France with a surprising wave of negative comments: one can read almost everywhere that this would be its lowest level since 1990, people hastily interpret it as the sign of a slowdown, and some even wonder about the risk of a collapse. Coming from a country where we would love to reach 1% in 2015, these observations are cheeky.

It is obviously not the first time that this denial about China’s situation expresses itself. By keeping on predicting that the country would not carry ...

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La baisse des taux d’intérêt se poursuit en ce début d’année et l’indicateur TEC 10 de l’Agence France Trésor, qui mesure le rendement de la dette française à 10 ans, affiche un niveau jamais atteint : 0,73%. La perspective d’un accord à la BCE le 22 janvier sur le programme de rachat des dettes souveraines a amplifié le mouvement amorcé depuis plusieurs mois. Les premières adjudications menées par la France pour refinancer les dettes venant à échéance et financer le déficit de l’exercice en cours ont ainsi ...

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According to the latest “monthly report” published by INSEE, the rate growth of French economy should be 0.3% per quarter, during the first semester 2015.

This news has been hailed, for once, by the business press that sees here the beginning of an upturn and by the French government that justifies thereby the forecast sent to Brussels in order to defend its policy and the gradual return of France’s public deficit below 3%. However, this analysis of the situation is not convincing. First, this figure relies on tiny changes, a few thousandths of GDP. No statistical system is ...

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