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AB 2000 studies

Alain Boublil Blog

   

France

Growth : The worst is to be feared

INSEE has just published, along with its first estimation of the GDP evolution during the 1st quarter, figures of household goods consumption in March and inflation in April. These figures are important because they allow making a first analysis of the economic agents reaction to the lockdown measures adopted since March 16th. GDP has fallen by 5.8% compared to the previous quarter and household goods consumption by 17% compared to March 2019. Inflation, month on month, has been 0.1%, i.e. on one year 0.4%.

The GDP fall is especially alarming that it comes after ...

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A statistical recession

The economic consequences of the corona virus outbreak have an exceptional extent. In France, the first results of the Banque de France inquiries provide an estimation of the GDP fall during the 1st quarter of 6%. The government is forecasting for the full year a recession with the same magnitude. Support measures in favor of enterprises and the increasing of health and unemployment compensation expenditures could generate a public deficit above 7% and public debt could overpass at the end of the year 120% of GDP under the cumulative effect of the contraction of the denominator and the increase ...

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Globalization : The ideal guilty

When we are facing such a crisis, we need to find a responsible and even a guilty. Globalization looks like the favorite and it is not going to be without effects on “the days after”. The outbreak, as we can know it, was born in China, in one of the country industrial capitals, Wuhan, frequently nicknamed as the “Chinese Detroit”, so developed is its car industry. The outbreak, as also without being sure of it, expanded in Northern Italy and in Alsace because people, coming from the contaminated area, passed on the virus. Always through the mtrips of infected persons ...

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