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AB 2000 studies

Alain Boublil Blog


Archives April 2020

The new oil crisis (next)

The oil prices slump last week has given to the crisis resulting from the corona virus outbreak a new dimension. It has weighted on the financial markets which were starting to hope thanks to the reduction of the mortality rate and the announcement of the first measures about the end of lockdown. The quotation with a maturity date of the American petrol (measured by the WTI index) went even into negative territory and the Brent index, which is a representative one for the rest of the world, went below 20 dollars per barrel. It had fluctuated between 50 and 60 ...

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Which rebound for the Chinese economy ?

The Year of the Rat was looking promising for the Chinese economy at the Lunar New Year vacations Eve. When European and American economies were running out of steam, a first step in the conclusion of a trade agreement with the United States had been cleared and the risks of a tensions worsening were passing. 2019 growth  had over passed 6% and that was a result that would have made the whole world envious. December figures were even showing an accelerating trend. The sanitary catastrophe which occurred in January, when according to the tradition hundreds of millions of Chinese are ...

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A statistical recession

The economic consequences of the corona virus outbreak have an exceptional extent. In France, the first results of the Banque de France inquiries provide an estimation of the GDP fall during the 1st quarter of 6%. The government is forecasting for the full year a recession with the same magnitude. Support measures in favor of enterprises and the increasing of health and unemployment compensation expenditures could generate a public deficit above 7% and public debt could overpass at the end of the year 120% of GDP under the cumulative effect of the contraction of the denominator and the increase ...

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